We are now in the middle of "Oops"

Lots of people saying they're already in Fuck.

While I'm not in any position to debate what's the most accurate measurement of your position in this Highly Accurate and Rigorously Scientific timeline, I do feel that "Fuck" really comes when the food supply dwindles, water gets scarce (Hello Uruguay), coastal cities need to be evacuated and in general, our attempts to keep normality going become untenable.

But yeah, not going to argue where you are on this.

@pezmico True. We are in orange right now.

Except, IMHO, the orange is a lot shorter than this graph indicates and blends seamlessly into red.

Basically, by the time people concede that climate change is real, we will all be collectively saying "Oops."

πŸ₯²

@shrikant @pezmico
I vote fuck already.
We have water restrictions, soon to become droughts.
Food prices are rising already (for other reasons).
We had a heat wave in 2022 that killed thousands, and this year will be worse.
We have just figured out that AMOC is on the point of shutting down.

What you describe is the f*, f* and double fuck, just before we wipe out civilisation.

@gezza That was... surprisingly eloquent. Not joking. :)

I kinda agree with you, except the people in charge of 'declaring' the emergency have enough fat on their bones to last out the peasants who will, unfortunately be forced to broil first.

The "f*, f*, and double f*" stage will be declared only after the people in charge use up all their fat and begin to broil, sadly.

@pezmico

Cereal crops decimated by Europe's heatwave

The 2023 European cereal harvest is set to be its lowest since 2007, some 9.5% lower than the five-year average

The Grocer
@pezmico Yeah in my view, if someone thinks that we're at "Fuck" now, then they're basically a climate change denier. We haven't even had any wars about water yet or 10%+ of the world population starve due to climate change. We're still playing on easy.

@pezmico I'd say we're at 'Oops' still in th UK.

People still drive low mpg petrol/diesel vehicles and fly more than necessary for holidays and business.

The effects of man-made climate change are still only an inconvenience for most and there's a general lack of compassion for those suffering extreme effects.

I reckon we'll get to 'Fuck' in the coming 10 years when our opportunities to mitigate will have gone.

@pezmico in oops, we would be trying with great plans and all, woudln't we ?
Feel we're in "yes but profit" phase

@pezmico

I reckon a lot of folks are a lot closer to β€œfuck”

@pezmico The XKCD cartoon about global warming is the most sobering I’ve ever seen: https://xkcd.com/1732/
Earth Temperature Timeline

xkcd

@EpiphanicSynchronicity @pezmico

πŸ”₯ πŸ”₯ 🌎 πŸ”₯πŸ”₯

That best-case scenario is already outdated. We're definitely going to pass +1.5 degrees, and +2 is getting very hard to avoid.
@mcv even this by global timescales not-so-old correction is outdated, because we've passed 1,5Β° already.

@EpiphanicSynchronicity @pezmico that graph/visualization is amazingly dramatic. You scroll and scroll and scroll, and then...BAM. Holy cow. Oh dear. That hard turn at the bottom struck me exactly like an unexpected reveal in a movie.

It belongs on Hannah Frye's "Uncharted" podcast: https://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p0gf6rbs, I think.

BBC Radio 4 - Uncharted with Hannah Fry, Introducing Uncharted - with Hannah Fry

Tales of data and discovery with Hannah Fry.

BBC
@EpiphanicSynchronicity @pezmico it looks like the "Egyptian Mummification" phase caused the temperature to drop, so maybe we should do some more of that
@pezmico somedays I think we're getting into "Fuck"
@pezmico I wish, in the USA, we could start talking about a national 55 mph speed limit. And shut down a few pipelines.
@Hallinen @pezmico we had 55mph speed limits once
@pezmico @brettowe I remember it. It saved a ton of gas. For all types of cars gas mileage is a lot better at 55 than 75. We don’t have any choice, we have waited way too long.

@Hallinen

Plus the lives that would be saved...Speed kills

@Hallinen @pezmico I remember 55mph during the fuel crisis... it took forever to get anywhere. We do have more efficient/electric vehicles now, and I think that's the direction we should focus on- transportation with lower environmental impact.
@pezmico @shadyspotlight For long road trips 55 mph adds a measurable time. For most commutes it is a minute or two. What else will cut gas use by ~17%? EV buy in will take a decade. We don’t have a decade. EVs go a lot further on a charge at 55 mph. Coal still make. electricity

@Hallinen @pezmico

Yes to 55 mph nation(s) wide. I’ve driven across US, round tip, at 55mph 3 times in past 10 years.
6 reasons for 55 mph limit.
1. Tires. Any tire starts to hydroplane on wet roads at 55mph. Less heat stress on older or under inflated tires.
2. Dry? CA has 55 mph limit whenever towing something. It’s just safer.
3. 55 is more fuel efficient. Drag increases exponentially compared to velocity. A little bit faster is a lot less efficient.
4. You likely aren’t tailgating the vehicle in front of you.
5. You have more time to safely react to anything that happens.
6. 1-5 allow you to reduce mental & physical stress & enjoy the trip more.
Traffic? Passers gonna pass. Some people just follow for miles when they could pass.
55 mph traffic backs up pretty quickly on busy highways. Some impatient people drive recklessly. In those cases 55 may not save lives. So I speed up a bit for awhile or pull over.
Some states require slower vehicles to pull over when 5+ are held up.

@Hallinen @pezmico

P.S. Train travel is a good option. Amtrak must be part of our rapid drawdown of fossil fuels. Plutocrats don’t like Amtrak so their politicians don’t either. So US Congress must be made* to make it better.
Good: I’ve crossed the US on Amtrak 5 times in 5 years. Coach seats are do-able & pretty inexpensive. Roomettes or rooms are nicer experience but can be very expensive. Book early if possible.
2 ways to make it better:
1. Expand auto-train coverage. People could travel across the country with their car. But without the time, effort, wear & tear (nanoplastics from tires) & Carbon Emissions. Expenses may well be favorable.
2. Expand baggage capacity. Open unused spaces on double deckers and provide baggage cars to other trains connecting across the country. Ex: depart from Boston to CHI: no baggage car. It joins the train from NYC with a baggage car, in Albany, but you can’t use it.
*Strike & only buy essentials if Congress won't take timely climate actions.

@pezmico well, yes. but it's not working. humanity now feels guilty about it. but we keep acting like humans. in some respect, nature might want to step up and apologise here. where did we come from? we didn't create ourselves. you might call it nature's mistake. but mother nature never apologises.
@pezmico
We passed Oops a while back.
@pezmico The current diversion is "we can't do anything about it now anyway". As the change is not binary, of course we can - even though we can't reverse the situation fully, what we do about decarbonization today still matters *a lot*.
@pezmico you forgot the "it's too late, we can't do anything, so why try" phase.
@pezmico I love this! At the same time until the curve starts getting bent down, we're still in the fuck around period. Find out period happens 50-100 years *after* net emissions start to decline. Unless clathrate gun. Then... Saddness
@pezmico @fasol i thought we were just passing the 'oops'/'fuck' border in the south and still in the 'no worries' in the north.
@pezmico I think we're in "Fuck, too late" ...but I'm a pessimist.

It does not matter whether climate change is caused by humans or not.

The fact that many forest fires are caused by lightning strikes, does not mean that we stand by the side without trying to reduce/prevent the damage.

The 'OOPS' phase that you show, is enough reason to get into action. Caused by humans or not.

@pezmico

@pezmico Sorry, we are in "FUCK."
@pezmico I'm enjoying the new articles asking "Are Future Humans Our Problem?" when discussing climate change. πŸ€¦πŸΌβ€β™‚οΈ
@pezmico Don't worry there are solutions brought to you by the geniuses who brought you Facebook, Twitter and Google +

@pezmico

Yeah,
Global north is in Oops.
Global south is in Fuuuck.

I'm at Planet of the Apes "You maniacs! You blew it up! Damn you! God damn you all to hell!"

@mrbadger42

@pezmico unfortunately way too many people are still stuck thinking climate change isn't real.
@pezmico we positively are in the "fuck" stage. The north Atlantic current conveyor is about to collapse anyday now.

@pezmico
I think we are still in the orange zone.

When people start to die in the thousands, that will be the oops zone.

The last zone will be bad.

@pezmico I think you’re right. However the β€œFuck” camp is growing rapidly
@pezmico
However, I know some "slower" people who are still in the second part. Oops and Fuck will then be more compressed for them. It will be more an "Oopsfuck" for them.
@pezmico i'd say we're at the beginnig of "fuck" πŸ”₯πŸ”₯😬πŸ”₯πŸ”₯
@pezmico some important agricultural lands feeding millions are starting to become very unhospitable to human life already (india, pakistan)...