Mike HoneyJul 31, 2023

Here's the latest variant picture for the United States.

XBB.1.5.* "Kraken" (26%) and XBB.1.16.* "Arcturus" (25%) are battling for dominance. The new EG.5.* variant (13%) has been rising steadily. XBB.1.9.* "Hyperion" (20%) is also significant.

The vigorous mix of variants implies increased immediate reinfection risks for those relying on immunity from a prior infection. Every variant is a minority of the recent samples.

The sample volumes seem representative up to July 12.

#COVID19 #USA #XBB_1_5 #Kraken #XBB_1_16 #Arcturus #EG_5
🧵

Show threadMike HoneyJul 31, 2023
For the US, EG.5.* showed a growth advantage of 4% per day against XBB.1.16.* "Arcturus", which predicts a crossover in early August.
Show threadMike HoneyJul 31, 2023

Here are the leading US states reporting EG.5.*.

The hotspots appear to be New York (22%), California (21%) and Virginia (21%).

Show threadMike HoneyJul 31, 2023

Here's the progress of the three new candidate sub-lineages: EG.5.1 (12%), XBB.1.16.6 (5%), and FL.1.5.1 (4%).

Previously it looked like FL.1.5.1 had a growth advantage, but now more data is available (from a wider pool of states) it seems that EG.5.1 is dominating the others.

Show threadEvolving Kirt

@mike_honey_

Are the #COVID variants up to E now?

Are they still all omicron?

They really should have called omicron #SARScov3 and #COVID21 or possibly #SARScov4 after calling Modi's Monster SARS-CoV-3 instead of #Delta ?

Calling every #variant #omicron when there are constant new #variants really feels like deliberate #obfuscation to hide them?

I've seen media reports saying #NoNewVariants when there are just as many as ever, or more?

#Modi

cc other mes @kirt @kirt @kirt

Jul 31, 2023 at 7:34amWeb
Show threadMike HoneyAug 1, 2023

@kirt @kirt @kirt @kirt I think HU is the latest alphabetic prefix. Yes they mostly been descendants of "Omicron" recently. The only significant "Deltacron" recombinant is XBC.*, mostly in Australia.

Here's more info on the unofficial effort to nickname new variants, to avoid that obfuscation effect.
https://whn.global/common-names-for-variants/

“Common Names” for Notable SARS-CoV-2 Variants: Proposal for a Transparent and Consistent Nicknaming Process to Aid Communication - WHN

T. Ryan Gregory, Yaneer Bar-Yam, Ulrich Elling, Daniele Focosi, Federico Gueli, Ryan Hisner, Mike Honey, Stuart Turville First draft: October 1, 2022; Most recent: February 13, 2023 I. Executive Summary The SARS-CoV-2 pandemic has highlighted the importance of clear communication that makes information accessible to a wide audience. Efforts to communicate about the evolution, diversity, … Continued

WHN