Brandon PinkJul 26, 2023
Tim Mak
Weiss makes the case that pessimism about the #Ukrainian counteroffensive is premature and misguided, citing agonized and defeatist reports from the #Russian side.
https://newlinesmag.com/argument/russians-see-ukrainian-progress-where-others-dont/
Russians See Ukrainian Progress Where Others Don’t

Kyiv’s long-awaited counteroffensive is portrayed as more successful by enemy soldiers and their cheerleaders than by Western analysts

New Lines Magazine
Jul 26, 2023 at 4:51pmWeb
Show threadTim MakJul 26, 2023
1) Weiss believes that #Ukraine has an edge in long-range fires, citing an estimate that 25 artillery pieces are being destroyed by the Ukrainians each day, which is beginning to have a substantial effect.
Show threadTim MakJul 26, 2023
2) He says that #Russians are suffering from low morale and poor social/political cohesion; and also from a shortage of ammunition.
Show threadTim MakJul 26, 2023
3) Weiss notes that #Ukraine has substantial reserves that it has not yet committed to the front and that most of these soldiers were trained by #NATO/have Western equipment.
Show threadTim MakJul 26, 2023
Ultimately, Weiss believes that #Ukraine is a victim of its own prior success and mythology.
With dramatic advances and victories in the Kyiv and Kharkiv regions, the expectation was set for an unlikely and almost-miraculous insta-victory in the counteroffensive.
Show threadJef PoskanzerJul 26, 2023
@timkmak I saw an interesting comparison on Twitter a month ago, of the Ukrainian counteroffensive which was then just getting started, to the immediate post D-Day situation in WWII. After the Allies landed there was a seven week period with not much movement and huge losses on both sides. Then the German reserves ran out, and a month later the Allies liberated Paris. If the Russian reserves run out before the Ukranian, we could see something similar - long stalemate followed by sudden sprint.
Show threadPandwerpJul 26, 2023
@jef @timkmak The Normandy breakout was begun with a massive aerial bombardment which created a hole in the German lines. This allowed Allied armored forces into German rear areas. Who know how much longer the Normandy phase would have taken without dominance of the air. Part of a modern combined arms force is air cover. Ukraine is not being supported with these components.
Show threadL’Etat C’est MoiJul 31, 2023
@jef @timkmak Excellent comparison, thank you.
Show threadMettEagleJul 26, 2023
@timkmak better slow and steady but without many lost lives. I guess there are russian mines and traps everywhere. Better safe than in a rush.
Show threadCoffeetestJul 26, 2023

@timkmak When it isn't your own life I guess it is easy to be impatient that victory doesn't fit one's preferred news cycle.

Why it is that anyone expects that Ukraine could rapidly push out an invading force like RF or even if that would be the best strategy (at any cost)?

I feel confident that Ukraine is making do with the resources they have and making judgments they believe in their best interests. IMHO it is up to us to support them in their plan for their country.

Show threadIdeal CHJul 26, 2023

> covering a war accurately is far more difficult [than just covering combat], because it requires some understanding of strategy, logistics, morale and other things that often can’t be observed

True. Still, I wish western media would make more efforts at understanding...

@timkmak