Mastodawn

L Jul 13, 2023

How I see a 2024 #Biden - #Trump matchup right now. I'm assuming a low-growth, 3.5-4% unemployment, low-inflation, moderate-gas-price #economy for next year.

My confidence comes from 1) Biden already beat Trump 2) Trump's gotten even more crazy since 3) Dems did OK in '22 despite raging inflation and 4) Court decisions increasing Dem enthusiasm.

Edit - did not realize there was a "tilt" category, adding AZ and GA to tilt Dem

#politics #2024election #BidenHarris

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GA and Arizona are toss-ups but are certainly closer to "Lean D" than "Lean R" in this scenario. Like 51/49 D. NC feels like a true 50/50 to me

Of the "Lean R", I'm going with Ohio as the one with the best chance to flip. I do know that Sherrod Brown is running at the same time and is popular there. Plus #Biden biggest CHIPs act investment is in Ohio (Intel). Think he knows how to speak to the Midwest.