@drifthood @chrisnelder @TransitionShow @supernovae my recollection was, he gave local solar considerable value over utility scale due to "flexibility," but without attributing significant costs for the flexibility (eg costs of storage)

@drifthood @chrisnelder @TransitionShow @supernovae just looked at one of their reports again: https://www.vibrantcleanenergy.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/12/WhyDERs_TR_Final.pdf

Chart 4.10 shows their cost assumptions. For distribution solar and especially, storage, the numbers quoted are grossly low- no wonder using #'s like this he obtains cost for distributed solar < utility scale. He's just not grappling with reality here but needs to go talk to developers what real costs are- not NREL or academics

@smokeygeo @drifthood @TransitionShow @supernovae I’m sure @drchrisclack can explain where the cost figures come from.
@chrisnelder @smokeygeo @drifthood @TransitionShow @supernovae the costs were from Developers views from NREL numbers. The costs are much higher (installed costs) than utility by 2-3x. So not low at all.
@chrisnelder @smokeygeo @drifthood @TransitionShow @supernovae To be additionally clear. We had Costa for distributed solar & storage split to residential and commercial/industrial. There was additional interconnection costs as well. AND the connection to the utility grids as well. All co-optimised.

@drchrisclack @chrisnelder @drifthood @TransitionShow @supernovae

database of actual distributed solar costs is available on the link to "Solar PV Systems in MA" here: https://goclean.masscec.com/article/solar-costs-and-performance/

Solar Costs and Performance - Massachusetts Clean Energy Center

Massachusetts Clean Energy Center
@smokeygeo @chrisnelder @drifthood @TransitionShow @supernovae yes, and match ours very nicely. Since our costs are in $/kWdc. Before interconnection to the grid.
@drchrisclack @chrisnelder @drifthood @TransitionShow @supernovae I think the issue is by 2028 the cost projections for distributed solar drop off like a rock, if I am not missing anything... the storage costs quoted there are puzzling- perhaps cell only costs (around $150/kwh). It's practically against all laws of physics and engineering to say distributed solar costs less than utility scale, where there are huge economies of scale in construction, procurement and permitting. What am I missing??
@smokeygeo @drifthood @TransitionShow @supernovae I suspect you are still missing the original point that I was making. You are still looking at what a developer's costs might be. The point is that the full system costs--a superset of the developer costs--can make local solar cheaper (i.e., to society) because of co-optimization, as @drchrisclack's model shows.

@chrisnelder @drifthood @TransitionShow @supernovae @drchrisclack the developer's costs include the transmission, thus inclusive of the full system costs (with proposals some places to make developers responsible for ancillary services costs).

Looking at Clack's cost assumptions for generation- they are 1. low for PV (developers say $1-1.50/W for utility scale, and $2.50 for the cheapest large scale rooftop; Massachusetts shows an average of $3.80/W across distributed < 30kW); 2. a narrowing cost differential between utility scale & distributed that's hard to believe- with only a 25% premium for distributed past 2030. The time and effort getting permits for a 6 kw project, design & engineering, signoff from the utility... I've worked on a couple of these and don't see how distributed could ever come close but if there is a specific roadmap with feasible milestones would like to look at

@smokeygeo @chrisnelder @drifthood @TransitionShow @supernovae You are making a straw man. This will be my last response. These costs are 1. DC, 2. Don’t inc interconnection, 3. Don’t inc our regional multipliers, 4. Don’t inc ITC (or PTC), 5. We see a closing in cost over time, 5. We did not split different distributed in the images (C&I vs R). I have stated all this before, but you ignore. Most important, w/ higher cost still saves system money!