Somewhere between 'I can calculate the right answer' and 'too complicated, no idea' is the sweet spot of Gut Calls: juicy decisions you have to make on intuition.
New Design Talk: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-PNJZXnayk8&list=PLUtKzyIe0aB3jCqjOLE1FPyCt0Wks1R4X&index=13