anlomedad
I think, most #boreal forest will burn during adaption to an ever-new environment until a new equilibrium is found long after #CO2zero.
Maybe, we can use a progress bar toward 100% area burned?
"Installing climate change... please wait while nature updates its registry..."
Jul 2, 2023 at 12:04pmWeb
Show threadarthurgesslerJul 2, 2023
@anlomedad I think there is some hope (but it will certainly depend on how we continue to change the climate) as boreal forests are fire adapted and have also in the past been burning regularly (and even „need“ fires). The main problem is the frequency of fires - if the same patch burns to early again (and that might happen when it gets drier/warmer) regime shifts will happen and another ecosystem will establish.
Show threadanlomedadJul 2, 2023

@arthurgessler
Thanks, Arthur,
Don't have data at hand for area burnt in boreal forests but
for boreal forest in Asia there seems to be a strong correlation between temperatures in JuneJulyAugust and (emissions from) fires. (It's not [yet] from change in precipitation, I'm sure, because I looked at it, too.) And temperatures are going up.

I don't know for sure that CO2 emissions from fires say something about the area burnt in a particular year. But I assume it does.

The more yellowisch bars are CO2 emissions from North America boreal forest fires. I didn't add a temperature anomaly here out of Sunday laziness.

sources: ECMWF Era5 https://climatereanalyzer.org/reanalysis/monthly_tseries/
and https://www.geo.vu.nl/~gwerf/GFED/GFED4/tables/

Climate Reanalyzer

Show threadarthurgesslerJul 2, 2023
@anlomedad thanks that looks really convincing and yes the temperature is certainly an important factor - for precipitation it might be more complicated - in Australia (Mediterranean/temperate) high fire risk is often associated with some moist years (build up of biomass = fuel) and then a hot dry year to start the fire.
Show threadDr. Eric J. Fielding, PhDJul 2, 2023
@arthurgessler @anlomedad Many places in North America are suffering from the termination of the small fires that used to be set on purpose by Indigenous people of the First Nations and American Native Indians. Frequent small fires are lower intensity and tend to burn underbrush without damaging large trees. Suppression of small fires for a century means that fires now burn much hotter and larger.
Show threadarthurgesslerJul 2, 2023
@EricFielding @anlomedad fully agree - suppressing fires in fire-prone/dependent ecosystems is not a good idea because sooner or later it will burn anyway - problem with climate change - periods suitable for prescribed fires (not dry and hot) are getting rare.
Show threadanlomedadJul 2, 2023

@arthurgessler
Just think of all the fossil CO2 we assumed safely stored away in those trees. They had longer growth phases due to warmer temperatures for longer in the year. And they also happily used the fossil CO2 to grow more.
And used more water in the longer growth seasons, too.

Now, our fossil CO2 is added to the atmosphere, anyway. And water availability is changed in those burnt areas due to lack of forest, and possibly due to lack of rain in climate change. So new plants that want to enjoy high CO2 levels and long growth seasons won't have enough water...
@EricFielding