redhat has benefitted from centos and the other clones immensely by the fact that an entire generation of SREs trained on their distro. entire businesses (like my old one) were built around partnering with redhat and providing support and consulting for RHEL and the clones.

the redhat partner network was bootstrapped on the back of the clones. you lab with the clones and then start working with the real thing.

and yes, sometimes users who wanted support went with consultancies like mine and not upgrading to RHEL, it’s true. but that does not matter because when consultancies like mine were working on large contracts with large commitments we would suggest that RHEL be used instead of clones so that there was a point of accountability.

and really, that is and remains the only reason to buy a commercial Linux system: the contracted accountability in the form of the SLA. if a deployment does not require an SLA, then withholding the product just creates a situation where they will use a different one.

that results in a brain drain: the users who would have stayed in your ecosystem (via a clone), will now go learn a different ecosystem. and this causes you to lose your partner network as consultants retire.

you will be able to watch this shift by observing the evolution of middleware.

for example, lets talk about, say, cPanel. yes, really: cPanel is still around, and people still use it.

or lets talk about SolusVM. yes, really: that exists too, and for better or worse, it is the backbone of the traditional VPS industry.

today, these are built and deployed on RHEL or, more commonly, the clones.

tomorrow? they will be refactored and deployed on alternatives.

if i were to make a bet, i could see OpenSUSE capturing that entire segment of the RHEL/clone userbase within 2 years. later, those products will likely move more heavily in the direction of containerization, but OpenSUSE gives them a landing pad for the short term.

and when that happens? there goes the bulk of the SREs who got their first taste of SRE work by managing a hosting provider. that remains a *huge* segment of the redhat trained SRE footprint.

mike's post on LinkedIn, where he says that redhat defines "freeloaders" as people who only buy a minimum amount of RHEL licenses while using the clones heavily is spin.

RH have always hated the existence of the clones. they have used various legal chicanery, arguably in violation of the GPL, to attempt to force customers into moving all of their machines to RHEL, and away from clones.

i think the difference is that, previously, before IBM, leadership understood the need for the clones to exist (despite hating their existence), and that ultimately the clones did drive tangible value (and sales as I outlined above) for RH.

now IBM wishes to manage RH licensing as if it were software for a mainframe. this mentality will kill whatever is left in the product.

i know so many people who labbed their entire RHCE certification on CentOS that it is not even funny.

when i say the redhat partner network was built on the backs of the clones, i mean this literally.

@ariadne
From Red Hat's PoV the training and certification use case is "solved" with the tens of free licenses for individual use.
What they don't see: small businesses training the future generation of SREs by using only clones, will instead be trained on Ubuntu, Debian or whatever.
What's even worse: I think this strategy might succeed in the short and mid term. Numbers will go up. But the reputational damage will be higher than they can measure, and it will be the reason for their stagnation then demise in the long term.
@Aissen yes, their numbers will go up for a year or two, but by the time RHEL10 happens, it will be tanking.

@ariadne no

iBM has nothing to do with the old rotten hatred of RH exécutives towards clones.

Internet has still the records of interviews of RH top sales getting nuts about centos.

IBM is not an angel but here it bears zero responsibility.

@zirealvipi sure, but with IBM's takeover, the pressure to maximize revenue is heavier.
@ariadne containers will kill all remaining RHEL value
@szbalint hence why the business has largely shifted toward OpenShift in the past decade
@szbalint @ariadne I use Fedora. Always have since RH started charging money. Wasn't that the 90s?
@ariadne This is the best analysis I’ve heard so far about this subject. Note: I have not read interviews and not done enough research on the topic to just nod without hesitation, I think it makes 100 % sense given everything else I’ve learned about Red Hat’s business model over an extremely long time (Been a user on and off since I first installed Red Hat Desktop Linux 5.2 back in the late ’90s, plus several years RHEL at work).
@ariadne @pchestek I wonder how much competition with Amazon Linux factors into this decision. Maybe it doesn’t, but from personal experience, if you’re running in AWS and you want a hardened, Amazon-supported system, you use Amazon Linux, which is a RHEL derivative.
@ariadne The problem is Oracle. It’s my understanding RH helped the clones quite a bit, but this all started due to Oracle Linux.

@jollyrogue

actually, from what I have heard, the problem is Rocky in this case 🙃

yes, for a while, RH embraced the "community" clones. but that was because there really was not any choice.

but, now, they would rather those users become perpetual beta testers for the next RHEL release instead.

as for Oracle and the other commercial clones: yes, there has been a lot of friction there, but Oracle fought back and as far as I understand, there has just been a quiet truce in recent years

@jollyrogue i can point to interviews with RH executives back in the 2000s when CentOS 3/4 were still the latest versions, where they were complaining that CentOS was a thing 🙃

@ariadne True. The clones were good marketing, and I’m not disagreeing with that.

Interesting about Oracle.

Is it Rocky? They seem to be the least problematic. 😆 The new clones are all iffy all around, and I wasn’t going to touch them unless I was forced to, like GitLab did for a couple of my test boxes.

@jollyrogue yes, the problem is that Rocky is taking away users who they would like to redirect onto Stream.

@ariadne @jollyrogue I don't think it's just that; rebuilders are also taking users that would otherwise buy RHEL because they need certifications.

See FIPS for example. Getting certified is expensive. A huge amount of developer time goes into making the crypto libs compliant, the rebuilders just take that effort and re-submit. I have no way to confirm this directly, but I've heard rebuilders going around doing sales marketing with their certification (that they don't yet have).

@ariadne @jollyrogue Take a look at the "Rocky Linux 8.6 OpenSSL Cryptographic Module" submitted at https://csrc.nist.gov/Projects/cryptographic-module-validation-program/modules-in-process/iut-list.

Getting crypto FIPS-certified is what currently pays my salary, so I know a thing or two about it — but I have no idea how they plan to get OpenSSL on 8.6 (which is OpenSSL 1.1) certified under FIPS 140-3; that would require a huge amount of dev effort and many patches in my opinion. Where is that development effort happening? It's not here: https://git.rockylinux.org/staging/rpms/openssl/-/commits/r8

Implementation Under Test List - Cryptographic Module Validation Program | CSRC | CSRC

The IUT list is provided as a marketing service for vendors who have a viable contract with an accredited laboratory for the testing of a cryptographic module, and the module and required documentation is resident at the laboratory.  The CMVP does not have detailed information about the specific cryptographic module or when the test report will be submitted to the CMVP for validation. When the lab submits the test report to the CMVP, the module will transition from the IUT list to the MIP list. If you would like more information about a specific cryptographic module or its schedule, please contact the vendor.

CSRC | NIST

@ariadne @jollyrogue That leaves me wondering: are they just planning to get 140-3 certification for what RHEL ships and certified under 140-2? I don't think that's possible.

I may be wrong, but if I'm not: do they know that this is doomed to fail, and if they do, are they telling their customers that they never really expect to get that certification, or do they just happily go around and tell potential customers and users "yeah, it'll come eventually, just buy support now".

@ariadne @jollyrogue https://forums.rockylinux.org/t/fips-validation/4803/26 asks this exact question, but there has never been an answer.
FIPS Validation

Brian, I see that Rocky 8 OpenSSL is still IUT for FIPS 140-3. What version of Rocky 8 openssl is currently being tested for CMVP? RHEL8 is maintaining their 1.1.1 certification under the FIPS 140-2 requirements, but CMVP is longer accept new submissions for 140-2. With the RHEL8 upstream being OpenSSL 1.1.1, I am assuming that Rocky has submitted 1.1.1 for FIPS 140-3, but I have heard that there were new FIPS 140-3 requirements that may not be able to be met with OpenSSL 1.1.1. If Rocky is ...

Rocky Linux Forum
@ariadne RH based distros are a pain compared to the debian based ones, we switched over 15 years ago and never came back
@stefb sure. and a lot of what i brought to alpine was similarly built on using RHEL in anger.
@ariadne yep, for containers we use mostly alpine too when possible
@stefb the real value proposition for Alpine is using it on the hosts, tbh
@ariadne didn't know that, i've always used it within containers

@ariadne I prefer the alternate phrasing of

"Freeloaders are people who don't buy what they don't need"