Strypey

"... polls are self-fulfilling prophecies. If everyone sees National are screwed, they can't win, and you're a National supporter, you just don't vote, you think 'what's the point, I've got better things to do."

#DavidFarrar

https://theworkinggroup.podbean.com/e/the-working-group-with-david-farrar-raf-manji-and-damien-grant/

#podcasts #TheWorkingGroup

The Working Group with David Farrar, Raf Manji and Damien Grant | The Working Group - NZ’s Best Weekly Political Podcast

Tonight with the leader of TOP, Raf Manji, Taxpayer Union Pollster and Blogfather David Farrar and lowly Stuff columnist Damien Grant.   Issue 1 – Latest TU/Curia Poll Issue 2 – Green Party Tax Policy Issue 3 – How much does National love Farmers? and Issue 4 – Red Radio Russian Propaganda scandal     The podcast broadcasts live 7.30pm Tuesdays from our purpose built studio bunker ADJACENT to Mediaworks studios on Facebook, YouTube & JuiceTV.live, The Daily Blog and replayed on Channel 200 Freeview and posted up afterwards on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Rova & YouTube 

Jun 17, 2023 at 8:43pmWeb
Show threadStrypeyJun 17, 2023

I agree with David on this. I've long said that there ought to be a moratorium on publishing poll results before elections. From at least a month before the early voting period starts, until after the polls close on election day. Ideally 3 months. For the same reason it used to be important to have a moratorium on campaigning on elections day itself.

#Aotearoa #NZ #NZPolitics #elections

Show threadDrDJun 17, 2023
@strypey yes and no. They can also act as a spur. Don’t ever focus on an individual poll…look at the trendline across a mix of polls.
Show threadStrypeyJun 18, 2023

@NZedAUS
> They can also act as a spur

Maybe, but either way they potentially distort the outcome.

> look at the trendline across a mix of polls

What politics geeks like us do is beside the point. We're talking about the aggregate effect of polls on the electorate as a whole.

Show threadDrDJun 18, 2023
@strypey i actually think the polling industry has lost some of their influence off the back of poor predictive performances in UK/US and some Australian elections over the past decade.
Show threadStrypeyJun 19, 2023

@NZedAUS
> the polling industry has lost some of their influence off the back of poor predictive performances

Again, only people who actively watch electoral politics know or care. For most voters, elections are horse races that last 3-6 months. Like a horse race, the most important part is the end. Some people, having been trod underfoot by neoliberalism for so long, are desperate to be on the winning team for a change. They'll vote for whoever looks most likely to win in the last few polls.

Show threadDrDJun 19, 2023
@strypey agree to disagree…the views of family/friends/colleagues + dominant narratives in overall media is more influential than polling per se.