1/n
#WarInUkraine D+469 (07/06) PdS2 - All Theaters except #Donbass & Backstage

LVI volunteers do not withdraw from 🇷🇺
Water from #Kakhovka dam not about to recede either
lucky and unlucky👇

2/n

Time machine,
If you've lost the thread, pick it up again with N°CDLXVIII-II of #GuerreEnUkraine

Unroll disponible in french on Thread Reader
https://twitter.com/escortert/status/1666091425208098818?s=20

3/n

1/ 🇷🇺 front

The gray zone around #NovayaTavolzhanka is still beyond the control of the 🇷🇺 authorities and 🇺🇦 LVI units (LSR, RDK and Polish Corps) are successfully interdicting the area👇

4/n

Colonel Andrey Stesev, commander of an airborne unit sent by #moscow, was reportedly killed👇
🇷🇺 army has not fallen into the trap set by 🇺🇦 either: observers have not detected any concentrations of 🇷🇺 troops in the area

5/n

The political cost of this affair increases for #Putin with time, and criticism rains down on his ultra-nationalist wing (#prigozhin, #girkin)

2/Front X, Hyp. Z,

(i) 🇺🇦 deep strikes

The #Tokmak-#Polohy-#Melitopol triangle was hit today and yesterday👇

6/n

(ii) 🇷🇺 deep strikes

New air campaign hitting
-targets: #Kharkiv + #Ukraine
-vectors: a few ground-to-ground ballistic missiles (modified S-300, range 82 km, imprecise strike),
35 air-to-ground cruise missiles (Kh-101/555) launched from Tu-95

7/n

-result:
-> AA defense 100% interception rate, 35 of 35 Kh101/555 air-to-ground missiles
-> no S-300 ballistic missile intercepted (#Kharkiv doesn't have the same AA defense as #Kyiv...)

8/n

3/Dnieper, left bank, destruction of #NovaKakhovka dam

(i) I accuse!...

The #NovaKakhovka dam was destroyed 👇 between 2am and 2:30am, on June 6, 2023, by the 🇷🇺 205th motorized rifle brigade (read below my take on doubt)

9/n

by blowing up the machinery chamber👇, flooding a large area downstream of the Dnieper, 40K people have to be evacuated from the right and left banks

#Russia committed another war crime (art.56 of the 1st protocol to the Geneva Conventions)

https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/live-blog/khakovka-dam-live-updates-ukraine-russia-blew-up-kherson-rcna87855#rcrd13603

10/n

(ii) motive

From the military point of view, this complicates the river passage downstream, which widens👇, this obtained effect is to be linked with high anticipations on the 🇷🇺 side, of crossing the Dnieper by 🇺🇦

11/n

But we can imagine that #AFU, in planning the offensive, have taken into account this risk already pointed out by President @ZelenskyyUa, several months ago
On the other hand, 🇺🇦 positions in the delta have been evacuated under 🇷🇺 bombardments👇

https://t.me/rybar/48084

12/n

On the right bank, the 🇷🇺 soldiers were also surprised and some were taken prisoner while fleeing the rising waters.
👇 first footage

12/n

👇 second footage

13/n

The second interest for 🇷🇺 is obtained in the informational field by a ripple effect: the nuclear risk is increasing and also the pressure on Western public opinion.

13/n

The reservoir is used to feed the ZNPP's cooling pool and will run dry in 4 days.
The ZNPP has other supply solutions, but this removes a safety key, further undermining the 7 pillars of its safety (cf. IAEA).

14/n

(iii) crime against civilians and the environment

In #Kherson, entire neighborhoods were flooded 👇 for a very long time

15/n

Hundreds of individual dramas unfold for civilians already tested by a 15-month war👇

16/n

(iv) From reasonable doubt to hyperbolic doubt

Why does Russian guilt seem so certain to me?
I'm not a journalist and I don't have an editorial team behind me to investigate.
I therefore subject my conclusions to reasonable doubt

17/n

However, the existence of a serious motive, the possibility of committing the crime and the availability of the murder weapon dispel any doubt.
The implausible explanations given by 🇷🇺 accused according to @TheStudyofWar also point the accusing finger at him.

18/n

#Peskov explains the crime because "#AFU is not achieving its objectives in its large-scale offensive" (what's that got to do with anything?)
#Shoigu claims that "#AFU destroyed the dam to prevent 🇷🇺 forces from taking advantage of the weakening of #AFU on the right bank"!