1/24
#Bakhmut, #Ukraine: #Wagner and #Prigojin announced today the capture of the city in #Donbas.

Is this true? What is the context? Is it a victory? What is the value of Bakhmut?

Let's look at it together in this thread with a timeline of the facts 🧵

2/24
#Prigojine explains in his video that the #Bakhmut assault had begun in Oct, 224 days ago.

In reality, the strikes started in July, which is when I went there for the 1st time.

Here we were near the Artemivsk factory.

3/24
#Soledar was the first target: a part of the city was already controlled by the 🇷🇺, the east was constantly being shelled.

It was here that I participated in a humanitarian mission with the 2 British volunteers killed in this same city, Andrew and Chris.

4/24
Сt was not until the first of December that #Wagner forces were able to enter the city's territory, after crossing the T-0504 road to the west.

Previously, the fighting was around, in Opytne, Ivanhrad, Pidhorodne, Soledar (until early January).

5//24
This is when pro-Russian voices rushed to announce the imminent fall of the city of 70000 inhabitants of the #Donetsk region, and it was also from there that it became the main target of Russian fire.

Here are images from January.

6/24
As we know today, this was not the case, and it was only in January 2023 that #Wagner took control of #Soledar north of #Bakhmut, and the danger of encirclement of the city was raised.

Soledar was a terrible battle.
Images January 23.

7/24
#Bakhmut became a real hell: a symbol of the country's courage and resistance.

The band Antytila even made a song in honor of this "fortress".

Notable heroes such as Dmytro Kotsubaylo, aka Da Vinci were killed there.

Image : @Liberov

8/24
The losses are significant on both sides, with an advantage on the side of the defenders, as is the case in most wars.

CNN spoke of a ratio of 🇷🇺 5 VS 🇺🇦 1.
Other sources say "at least" 3:1.

Ten of thousands of casualties on the #Wagner side.

📸 @Liberov

9/24
On April 3, #Prigozhin poses in downtown #Bakhmut, where he announces that legally, the city would be in #Wagner's hands.

The city hall, local administrations and the main square have gone to the Russian side.

The imminent fall is again announced.

10/24
Neighborhood after neighborhood, building after building, #Wagner have completely destroyed #Bakhmut.

Only a few buildings are still standing, the rest is a pile of ruins.

🇺🇦 are entrenching themselves everywhere, and are charging a lot of money for each square meter taken by 🇷🇺.

📽️ Bakhmut @Liberov

11/24
#Wagner is gradually advancing, capturing the city's train station to the east.

The Ukrainians now hold only the south, including the "road of life" (or sometimes rather death) that links #Bakhmut to the rest of free Ukraine.

Elite units are concentrated there.

12/24
Gradually, during the month of April, it becomes clear that the Russians are about to take the city.

The elite units started to withdraw, the number of wounded in the hospitals of the region decreased.

Ukrainians then prepare to leave.

📸 @Liberov 12/24

13/24
In early May, it is reported that Ukrainian troops control only a few streets and then a crossroads in the area known as "plane", where a statue of a plane is erected.

#Wagner continues to advance, but threatens to withdraw due to "lack of resources".

14/24
All my sources on the front told me that it was more of a "clan war" between the Russian military command and #Prigojin, as the intensity of fire remained constant.

A day later, Prigozhin announced that he had obtained the requested ammunition.

15/24
Small Ukrainian offensive operations were launched IN THE AREA OF #Bakhmut, giving some hope that the city would hold.

In Bakhmut itself, the Ukrainians continued to lose ground, despite some meager successes.

📸 @Liberov

16/24
May 18, 🇷🇺 bloggers announced the capture of #Bakhmut in its entirety, which is later denied by #Prigozhin himself.

He recalls the staggering losses of #Wagner, while announcing that the 'victory' was close.

On 20/05, he announces.

📸 @Liberov

17/24
Victory' of #Wagner?

Ukrainians do not confirm this.

🇺🇦 DefMin spokeswoman #Malyar says fighting continues.

Who to believe?

Journalist Verzilov posted a video from a trench in #Bakhmut. So there may still be a presence of 🇺🇦.

18/24
Aside from that.

Once #Bakhmut has definitely fallen to the Russians, can we talk about a Russian victory?

Ten thousand dead, more than 9 months to take the city.

The only winner is #Prigozhin, who saves his head by capturing the city 'at last'.

19/24
Will this affect the situation on the front?

Certainly not.

The Ukrainians are preparing to launch the great counter-offensive very soon, and the fall of Bakmhout was predictable.

Remember #Lysychansk. The 'Russian triumph' did not last.

20/24
Morale today is much higher in #Ukraine than after the occupation of the #Louhansk region in 2022.

The withdrawal was prepared, regular, and long overdue.

🇷🇺 having exhausted huge resources for #Bakhmut will not move in the immediate future.

21/24
This was one of the strategies of the Ukrainians: to contain the potential Russian offensive in the region of #Bakhmut by inflicting as many losses as possible.

We will see in the next few weeks if it paid off.

Then in 72 hours, the fate of Bakhmut will be clearer.

22/24
What do the Ukrainians think?

Some military, off the record, have been saying since January that we should withdraw, without criticizing #Zaluzhny.

Ajd, for many of them, it is perhaps a day of relief. Being 'far' from the hell of #Bakhmut.

@Liberov

23/24
What do the civilians say?

Obviously, losing #Bakhmut is a sad event for the country.

Nevertheless, my neighbors at the table today told me that the delivery of the F-16s and the prospect of an effective offensive gave them hope.

23/24
Finally, what is the purpose of #Bakhmut?

For 🇺🇦, it is civilians who will be under occupation and the permanent threat. A territory to be retaken at the cost of soldiers' lives.

It is the protection of #Kramatorsk and #Sloviansk.

This is containing the 🇷🇺 army.

📸 @Liberov