#Ukraine May 21, updates from @escortert. Macette Escortert threads are in two parts -> PdS1, #Donbass Theater -> PdS2, #Zaporizhia #Crimea #Russia Here is the PdS1 for today 👇
1/n
#WarInUkraine D+452 (21/05) PdS2 - Theaters
#Zaporizhzhya
#Crimea
#Russia
1/Front X, Hyp. Z, it's crazy
2/Dniepr, left bank & #Crimee, it causes
3/Backstage, #Hiroshima
Soon over the Dnieper
3/n
1/Front X, Hyp. Z,
(i)TDB
🟢Weather
🟢Test of "no-fly-zone", success
🟠Test & patterning of the front line, generalized
🟠Preparation in depth, started.
-destroy PC, EW, DM, logistics
-collapse fuel chain
🟠Ope. deception, started
🔴Offensive, Front X
4/n
(ii) Weather atmosphere,
5/n
Warm, but rain and, therefore, mud, after which, we have to wait for it to dry, it will be June...
6/n
(iii) deep 🇺🇦 strikes
They are concentrated on 3 triangles of the X front:
- #Tokmak-#Polohy-#Melitopol
⏺️#Mariupol-#Berdyansk-#Volnavakya
- Sevastopol-#Kerch-#Dranzhoi
Yesterday, #Mariupol airport was hit by Storm Shadows and/or GLSDBs successfully👇
7b/n
#berdyansk airport, another view 👇
8/n
The #Donetsk train station was also targeted 👇
https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1660198837783498752
9/n
2/Dnieper, left bank & #Crimee, it causes
To #Kherson, disinformation operations are going well
Here's where 🇺🇦 General #Drapatyy (below center👇) starts talking: "we continue to conduct raids on the left bank but the occupied positions are not
10/n
(...) not stable.
Even so, 90% of the islands are controlled indirectly (drones, artillery, a few commandos)."
🇺🇦 continues to weave its web on the islands of the delta: Cherkesky Island reportedly under 🇺🇦 control but well bombed by 🇷🇺👇
11/n
#Drapatyy continues in a tone of confidence: "we train twice a week to cross the Dnieper with boats and floating bridges and the delta islands could play a role in this maneuver"
Well, and the OPSEC, my general, where is it?
12/n
Well, obviously, this smells like a psychological operation for 🇷🇺 but beware, 🇺🇦 have often done both: one (psychological) operation can hide another (military)
13/n
3/Backstage, #Hiroshima
So the hawks will fly over the Leopards!
It's safe and fast: the training of 🇺🇦 pilots would be fast (4 months against 18 months planned, but it may have been a disinformation operation), especially since it may already be done...
14/n
But Jake SULLIVAN reminded us of the export rule: F-16s cannot be used to strike Russian territory
16/n
And maybe other supports are coming...
17/n
As always thanks @escortert for all the job done for these updates
Source
https://twitter.com/escortert/status/1660278151887437825
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