1/ - Operational information as of 0600 18.05.2023 regarding the Russian invasion

Quite interesting news today as we speak.

quick note first : as i'm explaining here for couple weeks, i do believe UA army is doing a "number" on Ru arty systems and all datas and vids confirms it.
it is really important, to notice because i do believe that even if UKR is gonna start PART of it's offensive in really close future

2/ it gives them plenty of "room" to make it in good order.
what i mean, is that it is quite clear now that all the western SPH combines air strikes link to with special counter battery radar systems, tactical reco drones/ immediate sat intel/etc etc are now in full mode in Ukraine and they are using it like Stradivarius right now.
32! is a new record (appart from first month of war) & same goes for special equip..

so i know it sounds "obvious" for some, but we are witnessing a true changes

3/ right now.
because it was quite "easy' at one point for UKR to hit some arty systems as ru had plenty and not well protected, but since last winter, all the datas have changed and it was a big concern that they might keep their "sharp teeth" to go on grinding UKrainian land and defenses.
but right now, it is pretty much confirmed that this is GONE. they are losing one of their last "asset" in this game!

and of course Russia can bring in some mortar tubes from several countries but no SPH

4/ maybe a dozen here and there, but this ressources is gonna be dry before the lack of ammo.
(sure they still have quite a lot as we speak, but maybe the third of what they started +reserve)
so just saying it out loud, but UKR could play lots of "game" in coming months to make false attacks and destroying even more of these systems.

and then morale might really sink deep low for Ru.

5/ now about #Missiles
"The Russian Federation does not stop striking, shelling not only military but also civilian objects. The opponent continues to strike missile strikes across Ukraine.
From 21:00 on May 17 to 05:30 on May 18, Russian occupants carried out several waves of missile attacks from different directions.
In total, 30 winged missiles of sea, air and ground bases were launched.
Of strategic aviation aircraft: two Tu-160 and eight Tu-95 launched 22 winged missiles І-101/ -1-555.

6/ Of the ships in the Black Sea - six winged caliber rockets.
As well as two winged missiles "Iskander-K" from the ground-operative-tactical rocket complexes.
Forces and anti-air defense equipment of the Air Force, in cooperation with other components of the Defense Forces of Ukraine, destroyed 29 winged missiles."

So my concerns (i expressed in last gen thread) was saddly true, there is also a raise in missiles attacks

7/ and Kremlin is really pushing now to see the limits of UKR air defense and surely trying to deplete them faster that they are refill (but they won't succeed soon)
(Also it breaks the stupid narrative we heard for months about Ru not being to produce missiles no more)

some more info also here for this night attack
https://kyivindependent.com/ukraines-air-defense-shoots-down-29-out-of-30-rockets-in-overnight-attacks/

Ukraine shoots down 29 out of 30 missiles in Russian May 18 attacks

Ukraine's air defense successfully shot down 29 Russian missiles, two kamikaze drones, and two reconnaissance drones on May 17-18, according to the General Staff.

Kyiv Independent

8/ 2 days ago i did not reported it, but for info it was :
six X-47M2 Aerobalistic Missiles "Dagger", 9 Winged Missiles " Caliber" - from ships in the Black Sea and three rockets (C-400, " Iskander-M").
All 18 rockets were destroyed allegedly by AD ZSU defense

In addition, on the night of May 16, the opponent attacked with Shahed-136/131 strike drones, and conducted air reconnaissance by three operational-tactical level drones - "Orlan-10"
all destroyed

9/ so you'll need to link this with this for future ref
https://elk.zone/mastodon.world/@HeliosRunner/110377120506293302

- Also NB. as stated 8 months ago, if they are sending this it means (like for aviation) that they do have plenty in reserve - like surely around 70/80 kaliber or 2k C-300 missiles- to protect their own territory.
what we are watching now is "only" ongoing production.

10/ now next part is going be dedicated to op situation :
(i'll come back on that this afternoon - with maps)

just one word though, Ru are progressing to seize last bit of Bakhmut and UA is closing in near #Klyshiivka

"B.D 👹, [18/05/2023 09:25] Finally, the correct figure is 1,700 meters per day, otherwise the officials consistently underestimated the performance of our boys near Bakhmut. The flank breakthrough continues, not everything is ok in the city, but ok on the flanks."

@HeliosRunner Une fois Bakhmut conquise par les Russes, y a-t-il la possibilité que les ukrainiens les encerclent ? Et si non, que peut il se passer ?
@Myosotisbasque en l'etat actuel des choses pas tres probable, mais si les positions que j'avais évoqués étaient conquises (donc vraiment toutes les positions jusqu'à la rivière, et ce aussi bien au sud qu'au nord, là oui, cela pourrait etre chaud pour les russes.
@HeliosRunner @Myosotisbasque ça serait vraiment l'humiliation suprême pour l'armée conventionnelle ET wagner
@harps @HeliosRunner Une victoire dans un premier temps qu’ils ne manqueraient pas de « monter en épingle » mais éphémère si jamais ils se retrouvaient assiégés !