Hugh LewisMay 15, 2023
Welcome to this month's look at #Starlink conjunction risk mitigation manoeuvres. Through 30 April 2023, I estimate that Starlink satellites have made a total of > 45,000 manoeuvres to mitigate the risk of colliding with other space objects. The number of manoeuvres is growing exponentially (see later in the thread) because the number of Starlink satellites in orbit is increasing and the number of other objects in orbit is increasing [1/n]
Show threadHugh LewisMay 15, 2023
A better relationship to consider is the one between the (cumulative) number of manoeuvres and the (cumulative) number of Starlink satellites launched. The growth is a non-linear function of the number of Starlink satellites [2/n]
Show threadHugh LewisMay 15, 2023
Here, I looked at the manoeuvre estimates/reports in 6-monthly intervals, corresponding to the reporting periods used by SpaceX. Additionally, I added a prediction to the end of 2024 based on an exponential fit through 30 April 2023. [3/n]
Show threadHugh Lewis
Based on the predictions, I think SpaceX could be reporting > 100,000 new manoeuvres in the 12 months from 1 June 2023 (if the trends continue; note the caveat about correlation/causation in the image description above) [4/n]
May 15, 2023 at 6:03pmWeb
Show threadHugh LewisMay 15, 2023
Here's the same chart but with a logarithmic y-axis [5/n]
Show threadHugh LewisMay 15, 2023
Thanks to T.S. Kelso for support with the SOCRATES/SOCRATES PLUS data (here: https://celestrak.org/SOCRATES/) and @planet4589 for support with the Starlink statistics (here: https://planet4589.org/space/con/star/log.dat) [6/6; fin]
CelesTrak: SOCRATES Plus

Show threadAccount: AviationMay 16, 2023
@ProfHughLewis Oh freaking finally. I came to all this thread just with a question why not use log scale to begin with.