Hugh Lewis
Welcome to this month's look at #Starlink conjunction risk mitigation manoeuvres. Through 30 April 2023, I estimate that Starlink satellites have made a total of > 45,000 manoeuvres to mitigate the risk of colliding with other space objects. The number of manoeuvres is growing exponentially (see later in the thread) because the number of Starlink satellites in orbit is increasing and the number of other objects in orbit is increasing [1/n]
May 15, 2023 at 5:52pmWeb
Show threadHugh LewisMay 15, 2023
A better relationship to consider is the one between the (cumulative) number of manoeuvres and the (cumulative) number of Starlink satellites launched. The growth is a non-linear function of the number of Starlink satellites [2/n]
Show threadHugh LewisMay 15, 2023
Here, I looked at the manoeuvre estimates/reports in 6-monthly intervals, corresponding to the reporting periods used by SpaceX. Additionally, I added a prediction to the end of 2024 based on an exponential fit through 30 April 2023. [3/n]
Show threadHugh LewisMay 15, 2023
Based on the predictions, I think SpaceX could be reporting > 100,000 new manoeuvres in the 12 months from 1 June 2023 (if the trends continue; note the caveat about correlation/causation in the image description above) [4/n]
Show threadHugh LewisMay 15, 2023
Here's the same chart but with a logarithmic y-axis [5/n]
Show threadHugh LewisMay 15, 2023
Thanks to T.S. Kelso for support with the SOCRATES/SOCRATES PLUS data (here: https://celestrak.org/SOCRATES/) and @planet4589 for support with the Starlink statistics (here: https://planet4589.org/space/con/star/log.dat) [6/6; fin]
CelesTrak: SOCRATES Plus

Show threadAccount: AviationMay 16, 2023
@ProfHughLewis Oh freaking finally. I came to all this thread just with a question why not use log scale to begin with.
Show threadNonya Bidniss 🥥🌴May 15, 2023
@ProfHughLewis On the other hand, are other satellites having to be moved to avoid Starlink?
Show threadSpicewallaMay 15, 2023

@ProfHughLewis

FWIW, there is a TV series about cleaning up space junk, called Planetes. Its rather good. Its japanese, but there is an english dub.

https://www.imdb.com/title/tt0816398/

Planetes (TV Series 2003–2004) ⭐ 8.1 | Animation, Drama, Sci-Fi

25m | TV-14

IMDb
Show threadDavid GaladíEnríquez 🐀May 16, 2023
@ProfHughLewis They can avoid only objects (active or non active) whose orbits are known. Smaller pieces of debris are not tracked and an impact with them is also potentially destructive. The loss of the first Starlink satellite due to this is only a matter of time. The doubt is if they will report the incident, or not. I would beat that they will not.