The US economy is performing amazingly well, but as Bloomberg's Matthew Winkler notes, the public overall doesn't realize that. Why?

He alludes to the key reason for the public's lack of understanding, but doesn't make clear what it is, so allow me to be clear that "media narrative" doesn't explain who's primarily at fault.

The culprit is Big Journalism, again utterly failing to do its job.

https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2023-04-25/biden-s-economy-deserves-more-appreciation-from-americans

The Truth About the Biden Economy

As the president launches his reelection campaign, his biggest challenge may be getting voters to ignore perception and focus on reality.

Bloomberg

@dangillmor

The culprit is that the economy is performing amazingly well.

For some.

A shockingly large segment of the population is living paycheck to paycheck and borrowing every month.

Big Journalism can print whatever they want, it will make no difference to them.

@marcolgato @dangillmor
Indeed. When all the benefits of a great economy accrue to only the wealthy and powerful, why would the average person even care, even when corporate media tells them?
@dangillmor I mean, there's also the fact that a meal at McDonald's is now $10, interest rates added $600-1000/mo to a house payment if you need to move and buy a different one (as we hear the Fed say more of us need to be unemployed to stop that), a huge portion of that GDP increase went to stock buybacks and other corporate profits while doing layoffs to make shareholders happy, etc. It's not all on Big Journalism. The news itself isn't 100% in one direction.

@jwynia @dangillmor Yes, corporations layoff and now the market loves them. There is no growth in tech stocks just perceived growth by not having to pay people.

Also 120% debt to GDP is not doing well.

https://www.usdebtclock.org

Some analysts think it will be a long time before qe reach the feds 2% inflation mandate

@dangillmor No. 'Big Journalism' is working precisely as intended.

@dangillmor “The economy has expanded by more than $4.4 trillion in the first two years under Biden, about the same as the previous nine years combined” but people think we are in a depression and the stock market which is up 33% since Nov 2020 is somehow in free fall

Thanks to the mainstream media

@dangillmor Have you been living under a rock? The US economy is NOT performing "amazingly well". Have you seen the inflation numbers? Do you realize that inflation prices out low income Americans of basic necessities? The US economy is NOT performing amazing well.

@RodgeNichols

So surprised to see your account is nothing but trollish replies. Blocked

@dangillmor or arguably in many cases doing the job assigned them by the oligarchs who own media empires which is no longer to report the news and the facts but in many cases to push a political agenda first and report second.

@dangillmor

I recently listed over a dozen Republican billionaire donors talk up "recession" in the business news.

They're orchestrating a recession, not guarding against one.

@Npars01 @dangillmor

Definitely. They'll want to be sure the nation is mired in a recession come 2024. Treasonous bastards.

@Npars01 @dangillmor

As do all economists.

Economics is a social science. People are more to do with it than the money.

Money likes to be moved This is what increases its value.

Economists like to get people to hoard money. They will encourage this by any means necessary.

@canusfeminacanis @Npars01 @dangillmor my experience of working with economists is that for a long time they assumed people were predictable and mostly greedy.

But actually since 2007/08 they have been cautious and frightened…they see that prices hardly ever come down after being hiked by inflation, they see their wages stagnate while CEOs and shareholders demand ever larger dividends. The wealth gap has never been larger.

What do economists have to say about this?

@JugglingWithEggs @Npars01 @dangillmor

"Let's raise our consultation fees"?

The clever economists would recognize that the lower income folk spend money more readily than the wealthy, often because they have no choice.

This has now developed into a problem of profiteering, as major corporations take larger slices of the pie, falsely creating shortages and leaving average people to get screwed.

@canusfeminacanis @JugglingWithEggs @dangillmor

Markets can be spooked into a "recession" by the public pronouncements of Republican billionaire donors.

Sam Zell is a real estate tycoon, not a qualified economist.

Republican donors want to have a recession for 2024.

@Npars01 @JugglingWithEggs @dangillmor

I have... issues with anyone in real estate. They've created a land-based ( as opposed to financial) recession, into which the greedy have plunged head first.

Of course the GOP want a recession for 2024. They pull this shit about every 15 years or so, when they can't get elected honestly.

@dangillmor Yep. When I tell people the media is biased I don’t mean toward liberals. The only “liberals” they have on are progs, who will reliably bash Dems.
@dangillmor The truth is inflation has an impact. Take a trip to the grocery store. Prices are up more than a little (speaking as a True Blue Democrat).
@dangillmor probably because the media keeps making a big deal about deficits and the national debt as if they're a problem.
@dangillmor *Sigh* It is depressing to hear this same drumbeat over and over again from MSM sites that should know — and do — better.

@dangillmor generally speaking, if the general public doesn’t think the US economy is doing well, that’s because it isn’t doing well **for them**

How can anyone state that economy is doing amazingly well while at the same time acknowledging that most people aren’t feeling it? What does it mean that the economy is hot if most people are still feeling a crap economy? Is the economy doing well if most people aren’t being lifted up the economy?

@dangillmor "Line goes up" is kind of meaningless. What does it mean to the average citizen? How does it translate to social welfare? Income? Access to education and medical care? Basic human rights that are under siege in what's formally the richest country in the world billing itself as the land of the free?
@dangillmor @vmstan would a society whose economy “is performing amazingly well” have people who go into medical bankruptcy? Doesn’t sound amazing to me. Maybe it’s doing “OK, all things considered”.

@chucker @dangillmor @vmstan the answer is sadly yes. If "the economy" does well, that tells us nothing about how the individual members of the society fares.

In fact, the economy could do even better if they just outright ignored people who don't contribute as much to the economy. In fact, I'm sure the economy was doing really well in the society portrayed in William Gibson's Virtual Light.

There are other measurements that take these things into account, but for some reason they're not as popular.

@loke @dangillmor @vmstan I guess my point is that we don’t have to *agree* to those measurements or economic success. We can redefine it to mean “the Gini coefficient is improving”, or “people find their careers more fulfilling”, or “the economy has produced new innovative approaches at tackling climate change”, etc.
@chucker @dangillmor @vmstan true, that would be ideal. It would in fact align better with what people think the term actually means.
@dangillmor People care about their pay. Data like GDP and employment levels are only useful to answer the question “How good is the economy *for the average voter*?” if *distribution of $$ rewards to an average worker is tied to those numbers.*
That connection has weakened.
Investors (and top execs) are reaping the vast majority of benefits from GDP growth.
Source https://www.opportunityinstitute.org/research/post/economic-update-workers-wages-and-corporate-profits/

@dangillmor we need to cut it out with the second derivative graph of inflation.

"The foot is still on the gas pedal of increasing prices, just not as hard."

@dangillmor @BrentInMasto statistics are an abstract, groceries are up 18%(more in some urban areas) rents have gone up and up, credit card rates have sky rocketed.

So yeah pretty hard to convince people the economy is doing great when the things that eat up the majority of their pay have jumped way, way up 🤷‍♂️

@voron But people are hiring and wages are, grudgingly, going up (but not enough to keep up with inflation in key areas, as you mention).
Given the House just barely passed their debt limit hostage bill, we now have a great opportunity to see what the other side would have us do to 'help' working people instead.
The debt limit is _really_ going to give the mass media a chance to fail spectacularly!
@dangillmor
@BrentInMasto @dangillmor I’m not so sure that’s accurate. There was just a recent very large study where 50% of the HR respondents stated that they listed jobs they had no intention of filling. They listed them to placate workers they were over working or to make it appear their company was growing to attract investors.
I truly believe our metrics are screwed. Anecdotally no one I know has had increased pay and many have been laid off & can’t find work 🤷‍♂️
@voron The tech sector is certainly working hard to lock in obscene profits for the bosses! That said, I work for small tech co and we are hiring and I got a 4% pay bump for the year.
I expect most of the job growth is in the service sector, replacing pandemic related loses, but I am hopeful we will see more growth in manufacturing as the IRA spending starts kicking in.
Workers are still getting shafted, but looking at the global economy, the US is doing better than most.
@dangillmor
@dangillmor @BrentInMasto Those who make up the 60% of the lowest end of earners are getting creamed because of food, housing & credit costs as well as delayed utilities from Covid elimination of snap & healthcare etc.
No amount of statistics is going to convince them the economy is great
@voron No argument here! Brings us back to the amazing job things like the child tax credit did for lifting children out of poverty. I firmly believe that the best thing we could do for the economy is pump more free money into the hands of those that will spend it immediately (even if half the fools will rush out to buy more guns).
But inflation! Bah, inflation isn't being caused by too much money in the economy, but by monopolies taking the opportunity to jack up their profits.
@dangillmor
@BrentInMasto @dangillmor We got in this mess when there was a massive slashing of taxes on the wealthy in many forms, huge increases in military & law enforcement spending along with deregulation.
☝️ none of that has changed.
- make stock buy backs illegal again
- increase the top tax bracket by 30% again
- reduce military & law enforcement spending by at least 25% each
☝️
That would only start to put us sort of back to pre Reagan.
This fiddling around the edges no
@voron Going to have to make a lot of structural changes to make all that stuff happen, and not just in the federal gov't. To bring it back around to the OP, the media doing its proper job of creating an informed public is going to be essential in this effort. How to make that happen though 🤷‍♂️
@dangillmor
@BrentInMasto @dangillmor I don’t know, I’ve pretty much given up on major media
@dangillmor it's not that the public lacks understanding, it's that the public knows the main indicators used by high-level policymakers have little bearing on their lived experiences. Corporations posting record profits while everyone suffers under record prices isn't exactly a recipe for economic success, especially when bank failures are picking up steam and tech is eating bricks.

@dangillmor this ☝️didn’t age well…
“Beneath the surface, though, the market is telling another story—and it’s the story of a looming recession. The market’s worst-performing sectors are all “cyclical,” or exposed to the economy…”

https://www.barrons.com/amp/livecoverage/stock-market-today-050223

Stock Market Today: Dow Slips, Banks Tumble, Oil Plunges on Recession Fears, Debt Ceiling, and the Fed

Barron's live coverage of financial markets, from stocks and bonds to oil and crypto.