back up for J. like JJApr 23, 2023

1/ Operational situation update regarding #russian_invasion in #Ukraine on April 23, 2023 :

It's going to be very short today my friends.
basically frontline is the same (some people have "fun" observing back and forth in a field in a middle of nowhere, but i have not time for this..

si situation has settle in all major place where Ru was trying to advance except for #Bakhmut.

so in this area there is some attempts on few directions but nothing "serious" for now

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2/ In #Bakhmut as expected, Ru tried to "close the deal" faster this week and pushed hard on the flanks, but one more time they just failed. within the city on the contrary they are making small incremental steady progress not to be denied & as said couple days ago, they r making progress now far past the pseudo railway protection (that some "brosint" tried to sell.)
anyway, now for sure, ru are going to gain more & more ground very soon simply because area.. is smaller.. each day
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3/ now there are 2 very distinctives area to check out in the coming days (maybe by the end of next week), it's the 2 areas i've circled in purple : if the 2 are simultaneously under strong Ru control, it would be legit to assess then, then #Bakhmut is "gone".. because one is the north "node"/ LOCs (even by the small West muddy road through fields) and the other is the "south" one..
so whatever the situation it will more clever then to just withdraw.
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4/ which drives me to personal note/conclusion that Ukr might want to think about the "symbol" now and not let the Russians have it for the 1st of May or the 9th.
in french we say "coupez l'herbe sous le pied" meaning they might want to just move out silently in couple days, just killing the narrative of "taken city"... & maybe why not counter attack in the others areas, just to make it have a very sour taste in the mouth, for russians..

but imo UKR is not going to do so now..

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5/ ok some figures and numbers and stats now :
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6/ Ru is still losing -even in the "low" weeks - the equivalent of 1 brigade per week (in menpower) & more or less an equivalent of a BTG in terms of material...
but it's going to be way worse for them in coming weeks when Ukr really starts to prepare for the offensive
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7/ and now the "to-date" recap of alleged losses for both camp
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8/ also if you need to read last quick recap of the global situation :
https://elk.zone/mastodon.world/@HeliosRunner/110208958406256511
back up for J. like JJ (@[email protected])

Attached: 1 image 1/ Operational situation update regarding #russian_invasion in #Ukraine on April 16, 2023 : #Russian r globally not able to conduct anymore their war. The frontline is about the same for the last couple of months now. Only #Prigozhin's own "project" to conduct #Wagner troops to seize #Bakhmut remains. But as he has "killed" his " low-end manpower potentials" he is now depending mostly to Ru army will & materials (or next "steal" of new recruits) they r progressing in #Bakhmut though #UkraineMap

Mastodon
Show threadback up for J. like JJApr 23, 2023

9/ and that's it for now my friends..
i'll do an total/global recap for the end of the month, for sure..
so we'll have time to talk about all the tiny details then..

until then... wish you all... all the best!
take care friends !

Show threadJfm14
@HeliosRunner hi Jéjé have a good afternoon🏈🏃‍♀️
Apr 23, 2023 at 1:15pmWeb