Mastodawn

#COVID19 is NOT just the flu! Not only can you get COVID multiple times a year (compared to once a decade with flu) data from Winter 2022-23 shows the fatality rate is 61% 🔼 with COVID. More data:

- Under 65, COVID & flu death risk are the same. Over 65, COVID death rate is 78% 🔼.

- Death rate goes down with vaccinations: 132% 🔼 for unvaccinated, 66% 🔼 for 1/2 doses, and 38% 🔼 than flu for the boosted.

- COVID reinfection deaths are 34% 🔼 than flu reinfection deaths.

https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2803749

Risk of Death in Patients Hospitalized for COVID-19 vs Seasonal Influenza in 2022-2023

This study uses data from the US Department of Veterans Affairs to assess whether SARS-CoV-2 remains associated with higher risk of death compared with seasonal influenza in fall-winter 2022-2023.

WndlB Apr 22, 2023

@augieray We (>65) are headed out to get our newly authorized bivalent booster at noon today. And that is at least 4 months before the newly-formulated booster shows up in Sept-Oct.

FunGuy2PlayWith Apr 22, 2023

@wndlb @augieray The interesting one to look out for isn't as much the variant version as the new "NextGen" vaccine itself (BioNTech BNT162b5 (current is b2)) in Phase 2 clinical trials right now. Sadly, I didn't get on that one. ☹️ https://www.clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT05472038

A Study to Learn About New COVID-19 RNA Vaccine Candidates as a Booster Dose in COVID-19 Vaccine-Experienced Healthy Individuals - Full Text View - ClinicalTrials.gov

A Study to Learn About New COVID-19 RNA Vaccine Candidates as a Booster Dose in COVID-19 Vaccine-Experienced Healthy Individuals - Full Text View.

@augieray have you considered stating the actual rates? Only stating percentage differences often takes the issue out of context. For example, buying 2 lottery tickets instead of 1 increases chances of a win by 200% yet the actual likelihood of a win remains so low that doubling it is statistically insignificant.

Augie Ray Apr 22, 2023

@ericjacksch Since the "it's just like the flu" concept was the thing I was attacking, then I believe the way I framed the data was both accurate and pertinent. And, I even provided a link AND a graphic for people who want to see the actual rates!

@augieray I understand your intent, and I did notice that you linked to the source. I’m just pointing out that the way in which you articulated your case using only percentages and without reference to other relevant factors, such as hospitalization status, may be misleading.

Laura Apr 22, 2023

@augieray Agree but also the attitude that it was ever "just" the flu was deeply flawed, ableist, ageist etc. from the get-go. The flu is an awful, preventable illness already. COVID is much worse.

𝓥𝓲𝓬𝓽🍓𝓻𝓲𝓪 Apr 22, 2023

@augieray You can definitely get the flu multiple times in a year. Not sure where you’re getting a decade from. But yes, COVID is worse and people need to treat it with the caution it deserves.

Augie Ray Apr 22, 2023

@KweVictoria You CAN get flu multiple times a year. CDC data suggests that 8 to 11% of Americans get the flu each year, so we actually DO get the flu around once or twice a decade. Meanwhile, many definitely are getting COVID twice or more often each year. We need to stop looking at the theoretical risk and look at the very real risks of a pandemic virus that is rapidly mutating in more immune-evasive variants, causing multiple surges a year.

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/keyfacts.htm

Key Facts About Influenza (Flu)

Learn key facts about influenza to fight against flu.

Centers for Disease Control and Prevention

𝓥𝓲𝓬𝓽🍓𝓻𝓲𝓪 Apr 22, 2023

@augieray Fair enough, but you used the word “can” so that’s how it reads. Perhaps a different word and reworking of the sentence structure could help clarify.

Augie Ray Apr 22, 2023

@KweVictoria That's also fair. Thanks for pointing that out.

GreySkies Apr 22, 2023

@augieray @KweVictoria

You can also get 2 different strains of Influenza (A and B). But this example is talking about the average, while of course the individual can catch it more often than once a decade.

One other thing of note is that influenza is truly seasonal (active during at most 4 months per season) while Covid just keeps on going year round.

𝓥𝓲𝓬𝓽🍓𝓻𝓲𝓪 Apr 22, 2023

@GreySkies @augieray That brings up a thought: flu doesn’t flourish Oct-April everywhere. In more tropical places, it’s year-round. And scientists are concerned climate change is going to alter the temperate zones from flu cycles to perennial like that. I know the less careful folks I see tend to think COVID has to follow virus “season” too, so perhaps we need to just do away with that term for our future health. We need a Smokey Bear daily risk alert and campaign, but for contagions.

GreySkies Apr 22, 2023

@KweVictoria @augieray

Agreed, that would be good! Add it to the list of things we really NEED but don't get :(

Why is flu year round though in more tropical places? I always thought that the seasonality factor *mainly* came into play because of people gathering more indoors when it's cold outside, hence less transmission in summer for flu. When it's always summer though, shouldn't it be the opposite? What are the driving factors there?

𝓥𝓲𝓬𝓽🍓𝓻𝓲𝓪 Apr 22, 2023

@GreySkies @augieray From what I’ve read, they think humidity may be the major factor. But they’re still working it. https://www.popsci.com/story/health/flu-climate-change-bad/

A warmer climate could make every season flu season

If the virus continues changing year-round, we could begin to see more dangerous forms of influenza.

Popular Science

GreySkies Apr 22, 2023

@KweVictoria @augieray

Alright that is sobering read :( so much for hoping for a brighter future as far as infectious disease is concerned.... they need to push nasal vaccine tech that blocks transmission ASAP, this is going to be a HUGE problem in addition to Covid once climate change effects kick in even more in the coming years...

Arnan de Gans Apr 22, 2023

@augieray you can have flu multiple times a year, certainly every year...

Augie Ray Apr 22, 2023

@arnandegans You CAN have the flu that often. But data shows people DO get it once or twice a decade.

Arnan de Gans Apr 22, 2023

@augieray That's not what you meant in your first post though - It strongly implied that flu is a once a decade thing.
Plus, 61% mortality for the chinese plague? More like 3-5% if you look at WHO numbers. For example 300k dead from 7.8million sick in Mexico (where I live).
If you look at the global numbers and see 600something million got sick, that would mean that 300million+ died according to your 61%? Which is clearly not true.

Theresa Kessler Apr 22, 2023

@augieray I have copd and am scared to death (literally) of getting covid! I have had 5 shots thus far. I did hear that we can now be eligiible to get the next one. I will get it as soon as I can get an appointment. I don't have a car and have to plan ahead on shots.