Daniel A. SmithApr 18, 2023

A little thread on FL party registration and turnout...

Yes, Rs have taken over Ds in total party registration in Florida. But in 2008, 2012, 2016, Ds > Rs in new regs. COVID in 2020 hurt D registration efforts. But the GOP's crackdown on 3PVROs (third party registration orgs) has hurt Ds even more.

Show threadDaniel A. Smith
Here's November 2022 party registration by a voter's year of registration. In 2008 and 2012, the Obama campaign ran a separate voter registration operation from the FL Dems, which led to the substantial D spikes. But even in 2018, Ds outperformed Rs.
Apr 18, 2023 at 8:03amWeb
Show threadDaniel A. SmithApr 18, 2023
Yet younger registered voters in Florida continue to register as Ds (and NPAs) at much higher rates than Rs. As of the 2022 Gen Election, Ds outnumbered Rs for all age groups under 45.
Show threadDaniel A. SmithApr 18, 2023
The problem for Florida Ds going into 2024 is not that the party is hemorrhaging voters or that Ds are being persuaded to vote for Republican candidates. The issue for Ds is that their voters (and NPAs who are persuadable) did not turn out to vote in 2020 and 2022.
Show threadDaniel A. SmithApr 18, 2023

In the 2022 GE, only 37% of Rs didn't vote. In contrast, 52% of Ds and 65% of NPAs didn't bother to turn out.

Does one party's failure to turn out constitute a 'mandate' for the side that does? Certainly DeSantis and the GOP gerrymandered legislature thinks so.

Show threadDaniel A. SmithApr 18, 2023

Will Ds (and NPAs), who are experiencing first-hand the unchecked power of a one-party state, be able to overcome the latest hurdles to the franchise and turn out in 2024? Time will tell.

#florida #DeSantis #politics