Kevin M. O'Brien 🔰Apr 5, 2023
Augie Ray

Watching conservatives claim NYC is dangerous on the birdsite reminds me of a chat I had in Dublin last summer. A couple next to me at a restaurant was visiting from Nashville. They asked of all the places I've lived, what I liked most. I said NYC. He said he'd be frightened to visit because of their tight gun laws, but he felt safe in Nashville. I looked it up: In 2020, Nashville had 607 violent crimes/100k people, and NYC had 256. People need to turn off FOX News!

https://realestate.usnews.com/places/tennessee/nashville/crime

Apr 4, 2023 at 9:52pmWeb
Show threadmarsbar078Apr 4, 2023
@augieray And what is a person from Dublin doing worrying about tight gun laws?! What are the gun laws in Dublin?
Show threadAugie RayApr 4, 2023
@marsbar078 Not sure you got the gist of that story. The couple visiting from Nashville was concerned about tight gun laws. I've lived in Dublin for 18 months--few guns and very low gun violence here (but I will be returning to the US this summer.)
Show threadmarsbar078Apr 4, 2023
@augieray Yup, I misunderstood. That makes more sense. I teach in Virginia and routinely hear from students how dangerous NYC is. From teachers, too.
Show threadAugie RayApr 4, 2023
@marsbar078 And I felt safer walking through Manhattan than I did in any other place I've lived. (Ironically, after living in the urban centers of San Francisco, San Antonio, Chicago, NYC, and Milwaukee and never having been a crime victim, three weeks after arriving in Dublin, my wife was pickpocketed. Unzipped her backpack and stole her wallet and phone while we were walking through the City Centre!)
Show threadJ-LARApr 4, 2023
@augieray Can confirm that walking through Manhattan at night feels WAY safer than walking through downtown Nashville.
Show threadclimate voter/degrowthistApr 4, 2023
@augieray It's kind of like feeling safer because you have a big SUV, whereas everyone is less safe because of it. Even if you are personally safer in theory does not mean the whole city is safer.
Show threadAugie RayApr 4, 2023
@tmstreet That metaphor doesn't work here, IMO. Having a larger car makes the owner safer and everyone else less safe. But living in Nashville doesn't make someone safer than living in NYC because it doesn't change their risk vis-a-vis others.
Show threadclimate voter/degrowthistApr 5, 2023
@augieray I should have said I am not sure if it makes you safer but their theory would be they can defend themselves if they have less gun laws. We know that doesn't protect the whole populace but I assume there are cases where an individual was made more safe.
Show threadBigRBApr 5, 2023
@augieray Wasn't he frightened in Dublin? I mean, Ireland has tight gun control too.
Show threadAugie RayApr 5, 2023
@bigrb I should've asked. That would've been a great question.
Show threadmyrmepropagandistApr 5, 2023

@augieray

Shortly after moving to the Bronx I went for a jog to get to know the neighborhood. About halfway along my run this guy starts chasing me and yelling ... "slow down lady!"

A $20 bill had fallen out of my pocket and he chased me a block to give it back.

New Yorkers aren't much on chitchat and everyone is in a hurry but it's a pretty nice town.

(On my recent trip to AZ I had to chew my fist to keep from being rude since the cashiers seemed so slow and kept TALKING to me)

Show threadBarry GoldmanApr 5, 2023
@futurebird @augieray oh god the world feels so slpw compared to nyc!
Show threadBlue TurtleApr 5, 2023
@futurebird @augieray
NYC reminds me of my hometown, Chicago.
Sometimes, I miss that olace.
Show threadmyrmepropagandistApr 5, 2023

@augieray

The tight gun laws in NYC don't do us much good because of all the places near by where laws aren't tight. I don't see why buying a gun couldn't be more like buying a car. You need a license, you need insurance in case it's in an accident.

Show threadKarl Morant 🇨🇦  ðŸ––Apr 5, 2023

@augieray

Guns make us all less safe.

Show threadWill SaxtonApr 5, 2023
@augieray Of all US cities w/ a population greater than 500k, Nashville ranks seventh in per capita violent crime (1,138 per 100k) https://worldpopulationreview.com/us-city-rankings/most-violent-cities-in-america. And when per capita violent crime stats are adjusted for population density, it ranks 3rd in annual violent crime incidents per square mile (14.02), behind Anchorage and Memphis.
Most Violent Cities in America 2023

Show threadMark vWApr 5, 2023
@augieray You might be right, but that statistic is unconvincing because NYC probably has a much higher population density than Nashville.
Show threadAugie RayApr 5, 2023
@markvonwahlde I have no idea what means. There is less crime per person in NYC than in Nashville. That's what "crime rate" means--the rate of crime per population. If you're suggesting there's more crime in NYC, of course there is. More people live in NYC than the entire state of Tennessee. That doesn't change that NYC is safer place to live then Nashville based on crime rate.
Show threadMark vWApr 5, 2023
@augieray Imagine NYC as 10 Nashville populations compressed into a 1 Nashville size. Imagine the murder rate is the same. As I move through the hypothetical NYC space, I have a 10 times greater chance of encountering a murderer than I would in Nashville. That hypothetical grossly illustrates the point that interests me.
Show threadAugie RayApr 5, 2023

@markvonwahlde Would you want to be in a city of 100 where 10 are killed or a city of 1,000 where 20 are killed? Twice as many die in the larger city, but the risk is much less.

All you've done is expanded the city to 10x the size, but if the murder rate's the same, you're no more likely to encounter a murderer unless you're literally covering 10x the area. If you cover one Nashville-size area, then you're no more likely to encounter a murderer, even if you are in a 10x larger city.

Show threadMark vWApr 5, 2023
@augieray I suppose I am more interested in murders per square mile than I am in murders per city.
Show threadAugie RayApr 5, 2023
@markvonwahlde That would make perfect sense if square feet were murdered. But since murders happen to people, the per capita rate is what matters. You're safer in New York than Nashville. Period.
Show threadMark vWApr 5, 2023
@augieray Thanks for the period.
Show threadAugie RayApr 5, 2023
@markvonwahlde You're welcome. (You're not the only one who can be snarky.)
Show threadPhil Thane ✅Apr 5, 2023
@augieray Meanwhile UK has been sickened by the shooting of ONE child last August. The murderer has just been jailed. #ItsTheGuns