Augie RayApr 4, 2023

Watching conservatives claim NYC is dangerous on the birdsite reminds me of a chat I had in Dublin last summer. A couple next to me at a restaurant was visiting from Nashville. They asked of all the places I've lived, what I liked most. I said NYC. He said he'd be frightened to visit because of their tight gun laws, but he felt safe in Nashville. I looked it up: In 2020, Nashville had 607 violent crimes/100k people, and NYC had 256. People need to turn off FOX News!

https://realestate.usnews.com/places/tennessee/nashville/crime

Show threadMark vWApr 5, 2023
@augieray You might be right, but that statistic is unconvincing because NYC probably has a much higher population density than Nashville.
Show threadAugie Ray
@markvonwahlde I have no idea what means. There is less crime per person in NYC than in Nashville. That's what "crime rate" means--the rate of crime per population. If you're suggesting there's more crime in NYC, of course there is. More people live in NYC than the entire state of Tennessee. That doesn't change that NYC is safer place to live then Nashville based on crime rate.
Apr 5, 2023 at 6:31amWeb
Show threadMark vWApr 5, 2023
@augieray Imagine NYC as 10 Nashville populations compressed into a 1 Nashville size. Imagine the murder rate is the same. As I move through the hypothetical NYC space, I have a 10 times greater chance of encountering a murderer than I would in Nashville. That hypothetical grossly illustrates the point that interests me.
Show threadAugie RayApr 5, 2023

@markvonwahlde Would you want to be in a city of 100 where 10 are killed or a city of 1,000 where 20 are killed? Twice as many die in the larger city, but the risk is much less.

All you've done is expanded the city to 10x the size, but if the murder rate's the same, you're no more likely to encounter a murderer unless you're literally covering 10x the area. If you cover one Nashville-size area, then you're no more likely to encounter a murderer, even if you are in a 10x larger city.

Show threadMark vWApr 5, 2023
@augieray I suppose I am more interested in murders per square mile than I am in murders per city.
Show threadAugie RayApr 5, 2023
@markvonwahlde That would make perfect sense if square feet were murdered. But since murders happen to people, the per capita rate is what matters. You're safer in New York than Nashville. Period.
Show threadMark vWApr 5, 2023
@augieray Thanks for the period.
Show threadAugie RayApr 5, 2023
@markvonwahlde You're welcome. (You're not the only one who can be snarky.)