Paul KrugmanOne thing I've been noticing in my correspondence is how many people think inflation is still running wild; the big deceleration in the 2nd half of 2022 hasn't broken through to public consciousness 1/
Several reasons for this. Too many media reports focus on yoy inflation, so miss the big turn. Traditional core inflation still reflecting rent increases from a year ago. And asymmetric reporting: breathless coverage of rising inflation, disinflation not so much 2/
But anyway, the truth is striking. Here's 3-month "supercore" excluding food energy shelter and used cars: 3/
What about wages? Running hotter than eve of the pandemic. But here's a longer view, using nonsupervisory wages (longer time series) 4/
Recent wage growth running about the same as late 90s and just before 2007-9 recession. Doesn't exactly scream "wage-price spiral"! 5/
Alan Reynolds at Cato@pkrugman
Several measures of new job openings have fallen for a year, this one by 9.7%.
Several measures of new job openings have fallen for a year, this one by 9.7%.