Augie RayJan 25, 2023
I think people are missing several important things about #COVID19 trends. First, while our surge peaks are less than in the past, the general state of COVID risks is not positive. For example, the US has had a positive rate of testing above 7.8% CONSTANTLY since May. That's the longest, uninterrupted period of the entire pandemic at this level.
Show threadAugie RayJan 25, 2023
Another example of how we're normalizing #COVID19 risks is hospitalizations. In the US, hospitalizations have declined since the holiday peak, but the rate as of January 17 (1.52 hospitalizations/100,000 population) is higher than it's been for all but 14 weeks in the past 11 months.
Show threadAugie RayJan 25, 2023
The 2nd thing people seem to miss is that the primary #COVID19 risk is NOT severe acute illness, hospitalization or death. Yes, we're losing around 4,000 lives a week in the US, but the bigger risk is that COVID is leaving so many with disabling symptoms. Data from the first two years of the pandemic found 71% of people with #longCOVID required continuing medical treatment or were unable to work for 6 months or more, and 18% could not return to work after a year. https://news.yahoo.com/long-covid-keeping-significant-numbers-125618654.html
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Show threadAugie Ray

And the 3rd risk people are summarily ignoring is that #COVID19 continues to evolve very rapidly into more immune-evasive forms. We know that a great deal of vaccine protection fades in 3 to 6 months. This is a problem considering that just 19% of the US and less than 10% of Europe has had a jab in the past six months.

https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2023.01.22.525079v1

https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/coronavirus-data-explorer?zoomToSelection=true&facet=none&uniformYAxis=0&pickerSort=asc&pickerMetric=location&hideControls=false&Interval=6-month+rolling+total&Relative+to+Population=true&Color+by+test+positivity=false&country=OWID_WRL~IRL~USA~Europe&Metric=Vaccine+doses

Jan 25, 2023 at 12:15pmWeb
Show threadAugie RayJan 25, 2023
If you add all that together--a high baseline of transmission and illness from a disease that disables a significant share of people at a time when #COVID19 is evolving and our protections fade--it does not add up to something very positive for 2023. We're being too lax about the risks. We're ignoring the people at greater risk who must stay locked at home because we're so careless. And we're disregarding the continued risk to the health of ourseles and loved ones.
Show threadAugie RayJan 25, 2023

Yes, currently, #COVID19 risks are declining in most of the US and the West. But we have to stop hearing “declining risks” and equating that with “safe.” They are NOT the same.

If we maintained some cautions--if we agreed to #WearAMask, stayed home when sick, and tried to avoid crowded places--we could keep the decline going rather than invite the inevitable next surge. We COULD save the lives and health of tens of millions of people; we just choose not to.

Show threadMeidasToriJan 25, 2023
@augieray I agree.