Anne ApplebaumScholz's refusal to agree even to allow others to send Leopard tanks now makes so little sense that it must be a reflection of some personal quirk: "I'm the mayor of Hamburg, and you cannot tell me what to do." Especially given that Germany has sent so much other lethal equipment.
Alderamin@anneapplebaum Alternative explanation in NZZ: if #Leopard2 tanks are donated to #Ukraine by Germany or other countries, they cannot be replaced timely with newly manufactured Leos, only by US tanks on stock, so German military industry would be losing ground. While not being any more noble, this explanation seems more plausible, IMHO. https://www.nzz.ch/international/kampfpanzer-leopard-2-us-ruestungsinteressen-lassen-scholz-zoegern-ld.1722377
Kampfpanzer Leopard 2: US-Rüstungsinteressen lassen Scholz zögern
Bisher wurde die Lieferung von Leopard 2 an die Ukraine immer unter dem militärischen Aspekt diskutiert. Doch mit Waffenlieferungen sind auch rüstungspolitische Interessen verbunden. Hier gehen deutsche und amerikanische Sichtweisen auseinander.
stpatrick@AlphaCephei @anneapplebaum
In 1st view, this sounds like a good, alternative explanation for German hesitation of #freetheleopards.
By 2nd view, it doesn't fit to the way, Germany acts since the ramping phase with Russian troops in Belarus since end of 2021. At that time Germany refused delivery of #Strela anti tank missiles and after the invasion #Leopard1 which are stored by about 100 in German warehouses.
It's a matter of historically wrong understanding of 🇷🇺 geostrategic goals by #SPD
In 1st view, this sounds like a good, alternative explanation for German hesitation of #freetheleopards.
By 2nd view, it doesn't fit to the way, Germany acts since the ramping phase with Russian troops in Belarus since end of 2021. At that time Germany refused delivery of #Strela anti tank missiles and after the invasion #Leopard1 which are stored by about 100 in German warehouses.
It's a matter of historically wrong understanding of 🇷🇺 geostrategic goals by #SPD
@stpatrick @anneapplebaum Note that before Russia's invasion of Ukraine, Gemany was still following the doctrine to not deliver weapons to crisis areas, in line with Anne's article. This, however, has radically changed, Germany is ranking 3rd behind US and UK in Ukraine weapon supplies.
@stpatrick @anneapplebaum It could even be that Pistorius is telling the truth, that there is no broad coalition in Europe for Leo deliveries and that the Polish PiS party has exploited a false claim to actually wanting to deliver Leos as a bait for right-wing anti-German resentments (would bot be the first time). They have not even yet sent an official export request. https://twitter.com/weegeedutchie/status/1616733090176434176?s=61&t=-mzNQ6aVXl4OgzpgXabAaA
@stpatrick @anneapplebaum I'm all in favor of delivering the tanks to Ukraine and there are more Germans pro such deliveries than con. However, the explanations that Scholz is afraid of the nuclear threat or on Russian payroll or that Germany is hampered by its history are too simple, far-fetched and outdated, respectively. There must be a better reason. Scholz is not totally stupid.