Paul KrugmanOne thing I've been noticing in my correspondence is how many people think inflation is still running wild; the big deceleration in the 2nd half of 2022 hasn't broken through to public consciousness 1/
Several reasons for this. Too many media reports focus on yoy inflation, so miss the big turn. Traditional core inflation still reflecting rent increases from a year ago. And asymmetric reporting: breathless coverage of rising inflation, disinflation not so much 2/
But anyway, the truth is striking. Here's 3-month "supercore" excluding food energy shelter and used cars: 3/
What about wages? Running hotter than eve of the pandemic. But here's a longer view, using nonsupervisory wages (longer time series) 4/
Manfred Lange (he/him)@pkrugman While in this visualization the postpandemic increases are higher, it might have its root cause in the higher inflation.
I'd not be surprised if at some point in the future the increases return back to the levels we saw long-term prepandemic.