Augie RayJan 19, 2023

A #COVID19 update for the weekend:

- COVID risks are moderate in the US right now. The CDC's transmission map shows 71% of the US at the highest level of COVID transmission, but its community level map only has 14% of the US in the High category. (The community level map feels like the wrong tool for the wrong time--it only turns red when hospitals fill up WITH COVID, but the primary risk isn't acute illness but long-term risks of repeated COVID infections.) https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#county-view?list_select_state=all_states&list_select_county=all_counties&data-type=Risk

COVID Data Tracker

CDC’s home for COVID-19 data. Visualizations, graphs, and data in one easy-to-use website.

Centers for Disease Control and Prevention
Show threadAugie RayJan 19, 2023
- If you're in the mid-Atlantic or Southeast US, you should be masking in crowds. Even by the lax standards of the CDC's community levels map, everyone in metropolitan New York City, New Jersey, Delaware, and much of Virginia, North Carolina, and South Carolina should be masking (not to mentions portions of other southern and Midwestern states.) https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#county-view?list_select_state=all_states&list_select_county=all_counties&data-type=CommunityLevels
COVID Data Tracker

CDC’s home for COVID-19 data. Visualizations, graphs, and data in one easy-to-use website.

Centers for Disease Control and Prevention
Show threadAugie RayJan 19, 2023

- And, if you followed WHO guidance, which changed this past week, you'd be masking EVERYWHERE without regard for current COVID status. Its guidance is masks “for anyone in a crowded, enclosed, or poorly ventilated space.” https://www.who.int/news/item/13-01-2023-who-updates-covid-19-guidelines-on-masks--treatments-and-patient-care

- The trends right now in the US all point to a better week ahead. COVID in wastewater is declining. https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#wastewater-surveillance

WHO updates COVID-19 guidelines on masks, treatments and patient care

The update is part of a continuous process of reviewing such materials, working with guideline development groups composed of independent, international experts.

Show threadAugie RayJan 19, 2023
- However, we should not expect that to continue. XBB.1.5 continues to grow rapidly in the US, and in states where it became predominant last month, it caused significant rises in infections and hospitalizations. (It could be that lower post-holiday travel and crowds will prevent a rapid surge, but that will only slow, not prevent this variant's spread). https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#variant-proportions
COVID Data Tracker

CDC’s home for COVID-19 data. Visualizations, graphs, and data in one easy-to-use website.

Centers for Disease Control and Prevention
Show threadAugie RayJan 19, 2023
- We must take the long-term risks of repeated COVID infections more seriously. A new study found that “Long COVID is associated with all ages and acute phase disease severities, with the highest percentage of diagnoses between the ages of 36 and 50 years, and most long COVID cases are in non-hospitalized patients with a mild acute illness.” It concludes, “a significant proportion of individuals with long COVID may have lifelong disabilities if no action is taken.” https://www.nature.com/articles/s41579-022-00846-2
Long COVID: major findings, mechanisms and recommendations - Nature Reviews Microbiology

Long COVID is an often debilitating illness of severe symptoms that can develop during or following COVID-19. In this Review, Davis, McCorkell, Vogel and Topol explore our knowledge of long COVID and highlight key findings, including potential mechanisms, the overlap with other conditions and potential treatments. They also discuss challenges and recommendations for long COVID research and care.

Nature
Show threadAugie RayJan 19, 2023
- To add more to that, another recent study found that people with COVID-19 have continued risks AFTER the acute state. Those who are 21 days or more post-diagnosis have a 40% higher risk of cardiovascular disease and a 500% higher risk of all-cause mortality. https://academic.oup.com/cardiovascres/advance-article/doi/10.1093/cvr/cvac195/6987834
Association of COVID-19 with short- and long-term risk of cardiovascular disease and mortality: a prospective cohort in UK Biobank

AbstractAims. This study aims to evaluate the short- and long-term associations between COVID-19 and development of cardiovascular disease (CVD) outcomes and mo

OUP Academic
Show threadAugie RayJan 19, 2023
- There are even more concerning variants being monitored. Sweden is seeing an explosion of COVID deaths--it's 3rd-highest surge of the pandemic. We don't know why. It may be that a new variant, XBF, is growing rapidly and possibly increasing fatality rate. It's too early to know, but the risk of a more deadly variant persists as we continue to encourage too much transmission and spread. https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/coronavirus-data-explorer?zoomToSelection=true&time=2020-03-01..latest&facet=none&pickerSort=asc&pickerMetric=location&Metric=Confirmed+deaths&Interval=7-day+rolling+average&Relative+to+Population=false&Color+by+test+positivity=false&country=~SWE
COVID-19 Data Explorer

Explore global data on COVID-19.

Our World in Data
Show threadAugie RayJan 19, 2023
- China deserves a mention. The situation there will grow even more dire due to the lunar new year. Data is thin, and the official data is not accurate. Experts expect China will see 36,000 deaths daily in the coming weeks. (The prior worldwide peak in early 2021 was less than 15,000.) Still, the risks China poses the rest of the planet seem modest; the variants causing this surge are not a risk in nations with high rates of prior infection and immunity protection.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-01-18/china-s-covid-deaths-to-peak-at-36-000-a-day-over-lunar-new-year-analysts
Show thread2¢Jan 19, 2023
@augieray there is no predicting how it will mutate. More infections mean more mutations. We are waiting to hit the lottery, but insufficiently informed to quantify risk. Don't microdose hopium. It is addictive.
Show threadAugie Ray
@Qbitzerre I honestly get a frustrated with responses like this. I spend 45 minutes collected more than a dozen factual links and urging caution, and then I get criticized for "microdosing hopium." On the one hand, I get it--I criticize Eric Topol for wildly swinging from "optimism" one week to caution the next. Only, I don't think anyone could read the entirety of my threat and read it as hopium. The reason to note this about China is because 1) it's acurate, and 2) to discourage racism.
Jan 19, 2023 at 1:46pmWeb
Show thread2¢Jan 20, 2023

@augieray I understand your frustration. I did read the entirety of your thread, and that is why I chose the word "microdosing" - and I don't think you are unrealistic. Perhaps I should have worded it differently, e.g.: as offering microdoses. Please forgive me for being so disgusted with the political and social atmosphere to be alarmed by gratuitous optimism.

As to racism, I get that too, yet I don't feel responsible for others' conflations.

Show threadAugie RayJan 20, 2023
@Qbitzerre |On the one hand, I do understand. As I mentioned, I get frustrated with how some experts vacillate rapidly from hopium to fear. (I was blocked on Twitter by Topol after pointing out his criticism of “pervasive pessimism” had been incorrect as vaccine protection faded and COVID mutated.) I hope I didn't overreact to your comment--I just didn't like being thought of as someone selling hopium when I've so consistently urged continued caution. So, I do get where you're coming from!
Show thread2¢Jan 20, 2023
@augieray perhaps it was I who overreacted. Thanks for your response. I've become sensitive to sentiment. For example, when I see caution characterized as fear, I read it as denial. Just touchy. Apology for any misunderstanding.