A #COVID19 update for the weekend:

- COVID risks are moderate in the US right now. The CDC's transmission map shows 71% of the US at the highest level of COVID transmission, but its community level map only has 14% of the US in the High category. (The community level map feels like the wrong tool for the wrong time--it only turns red when hospitals fill up WITH COVID, but the primary risk isn't acute illness but long-term risks of repeated COVID infections.) https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#county-view?list_select_state=all_states&list_select_county=all_counties&data-type=Risk

COVID Data Tracker

CDC’s home for COVID-19 data. Visualizations, graphs, and data in one easy-to-use website.

Centers for Disease Control and Prevention
- If you're in the mid-Atlantic or Southeast US, you should be masking in crowds. Even by the lax standards of the CDC's community levels map, everyone in metropolitan New York City, New Jersey, Delaware, and much of Virginia, North Carolina, and South Carolina should be masking (not to mentions portions of other southern and Midwestern states.) https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#county-view?list_select_state=all_states&list_select_county=all_counties&data-type=CommunityLevels
COVID Data Tracker

CDC’s home for COVID-19 data. Visualizations, graphs, and data in one easy-to-use website.

Centers for Disease Control and Prevention

- And, if you followed WHO guidance, which changed this past week, you'd be masking EVERYWHERE without regard for current COVID status. Its guidance is masks “for anyone in a crowded, enclosed, or poorly ventilated space.” https://www.who.int/news/item/13-01-2023-who-updates-covid-19-guidelines-on-masks--treatments-and-patient-care

- The trends right now in the US all point to a better week ahead. COVID in wastewater is declining. https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#wastewater-surveillance

WHO updates COVID-19 guidelines on masks, treatments and patient care

The update is part of a continuous process of reviewing such materials, working with guideline development groups composed of independent, international experts.

- However, we should not expect that to continue. XBB.1.5 continues to grow rapidly in the US, and in states where it became predominant last month, it caused significant rises in infections and hospitalizations. (It could be that lower post-holiday travel and crowds will prevent a rapid surge, but that will only slow, not prevent this variant's spread). https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#variant-proportions
COVID Data Tracker

CDC’s home for COVID-19 data. Visualizations, graphs, and data in one easy-to-use website.

Centers for Disease Control and Prevention
- We must take the long-term risks of repeated COVID infections more seriously. A new study found that “Long COVID is associated with all ages and acute phase disease severities, with the highest percentage of diagnoses between the ages of 36 and 50 years, and most long COVID cases are in non-hospitalized patients with a mild acute illness.” It concludes, “a significant proportion of individuals with long COVID may have lifelong disabilities if no action is taken.” https://www.nature.com/articles/s41579-022-00846-2
Long COVID: major findings, mechanisms and recommendations - Nature Reviews Microbiology

Long COVID is an often debilitating illness of severe symptoms that can develop during or following COVID-19. In this Review, Davis, McCorkell, Vogel and Topol explore our knowledge of long COVID and highlight key findings, including potential mechanisms, the overlap with other conditions and potential treatments. They also discuss challenges and recommendations for long COVID research and care.

Nature
- To add more to that, another recent study found that people with COVID-19 have continued risks AFTER the acute state. Those who are 21 days or more post-diagnosis have a 40% higher risk of cardiovascular disease and a 500% higher risk of all-cause mortality. https://academic.oup.com/cardiovascres/advance-article/doi/10.1093/cvr/cvac195/6987834
Association of COVID-19 with short- and long-term risk of cardiovascular disease and mortality: a prospective cohort in UK Biobank

AbstractAims. This study aims to evaluate the short- and long-term associations between COVID-19 and development of cardiovascular disease (CVD) outcomes and mo

OUP Academic
@augieray No, *unvaccinated people* infected with one of the original strains of the virus are at this risk. Please stop spreading misinformation.
@_Jordan That is fundamentally false. Many studies have found that vaccinated people, particularly those with waning protection 4-6-months or longer after their last jab, are at risk. That one line in this one study does NOT suggest that vaccinated people aren't at risk.
@_Jordan Vaccinated people are at LESS risk, not NO risk. Lots of evidence to back this up. https://www.gavi.org/vaccineswork/covid-19-vaccination-protects-against-long-covid
COVID-19 vaccination protects against Long COVID

UK data indicates that even though vaccinated people may have breakthrough infections, they are at less risk of developing Long COVID than those who are not vaccinated.