What the XBB.1.5 variant is telling us.
And what we can do about it.
My oped in today's Washington Post

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2023/01/08/xbb-covid-variant-immune-evasive-pandemic/
The coronavirus is speaking. It’s saying it’s not done with us.

The newest dominant strain of covid shows that it's a mistake to let down our guard.

The Washington Post
@erictopol
The new research on the increased severity of COVID in patients with AMD is alarming. I am FVL & have AMD & I’m very glad I have received all boosters & continue to mask. Sure seems to be a vascular disease. 🤷🏻‍♀️
@Sikntyrd54 @erictopol
I'm hoping you will tell me what AMD and FLV is. Google has me very confused. TY
@Lnsrel @erictopol
Age-related macular degeneration & Factor V (5) Leiden, an inherited blood clotting disorder that causes deep vein clots, DVT, & pulmonary embolisms, PE. Macular degeneration involves the circulatory system affecting the retina & macula.
@Sikntyrd54 @erictopol TY, I was hoping there was another AMD. I too have AMD
as well as auto immune disease and biweekly biologics. Life has changed with the effort to avoid Rona. So far I have. Dince early 2020 I watch the weekly Clinical Update with Dr Dan Griffen on Microbe.tv. The information has been so useful. Be well my friend.
@Lnsrel @erictopol
Thank you for sharing that info. I have not contracted COVID, either. That said, new cases & hospitalizations are increasing in my county after nearly a year of low hospitalizations. The recent AMD research made me return to being very, very cautious.
@Sikntyrd54 @erictopol I'm happy to see you have avoided Covid. Thank you for the AMD information. The waste water RNA signal is going up fast in the Boston area, sigh. Again.
Mask mandate in some universities start Monday.
Spring is just around the corner. Be well.
@Lnsrel @erictopol
What freaks me out is that my mom & her sister had AMD & Factor V. In fact nearly all my maternal relatives, incl my daughter & her sons, have FVL. I have lost touch w/my maternal cousins so I don’t know if they have developed AMD. I’m one of the youngest at 68. Keep up the good fight, too. I’m not giving up after 3 long years of remaining COVID free.
BioNTech, Pfizer to start testing universal vaccine for coronaviruses

Germany's BioNTech <a href="https://www.reuters.com/companies/22UAy.DE" target="_blank">(22UAy.DE)</a>, Pfizer's <a href="https://www.reuters.com/companies/PFE.N" target="_blank">(PFE.N)</a> partner in COVID-19 vaccines, said the two companies would start tests on humans of next-generation shots that protect against a wide variety of coronaviruses in the second half of the year.

Reuters

@erictopol

NYC hospitalizations are up sharply. #XBB

@andrew_a_lover @erictopol Rochester not doing well, either. Vaccinated % in rural Wyoming Co hasn’t budged above 53 for >4 months. I’m surprised NY state vaxed % is low as it is. Vermont far surpasses NY. Would be a interesting to see a sociodemographic explanation for this.

@erictopol thank you for raising the alarm. The "let it rip" philosophy has led us to this point and I fear getting the "Genie" back in the bottle - having mask and vaccine safety requirements - will be a daunting task.

#CovidIsNotOver
#GetBoostedNow
#COVIDisAirborne
#WearADamnMask
#MaskUp

@Turntwo363 @erictopol It won’t happen. The questioning look on people’s faces when I wear mask in public has convinced me of that.

@erictopol @alaric the only issue I have is “let our guard down” framing

Scientists didnt, doctors didnt, nurses didnt.

Right wing agitprop astroturfed “peoples movements” funded by corporations and oligarchs deliberately spent millions on stochastic terroristic social media campaigns to gain power and preserve profits on the bodies of millions

To the point babies are showing up in ICU with fucking MEASLES.

Our guard wasn’t let down, it was shot in the back.

#covid

@hammancheez @erictopol @alaric “Our guard wasn’t let down, it was shot in the back.” Quote for the day.
@erictopol as always, continued thank you. read your piece this morning.
@erictopol
I'm curious about any estimates you have on the transmissability factor (R-naught). Earlier variants were right up there with measles at 18+ and XBB.1.5 seems to be even greater.

@erictopol

Washington Post won't let me read it without giving them money.

@OldeHippi @erictopol
Eric copied the article following the WaPo link. 🙂
@sepfeiffer @OldeHippi @erictopol thanks, now I see the article and have been able to read through it. What just looked like a big white box on my phone screen was actually the article in two parts; although I needed to click into each of the two pictures, enlarge them, and scroll around a bit to read through it, that sure beats being stopped cold at a paywall.

@erictopol

Shared this with our head of school. Not that it will do any good. 😔

@erictopol What is it that prevents politicians everywhere from outing mitigation measures and right messaging in place? Surely that is much better than fighting with recurrent crisis.
@erictopol Thank you for making this readable. List masks as an option first. List it FIRST. There is a mask to fit every face. There is not a vax to fit every already immunocompromised person.
@erictopol my husband just got Covid after we got the updated booster in November. I'm not positive yet. That said, he never got very sick. A cough and congestion. Rapidly tested negative after non-Paxlovid anti-virals. We're in NYC, everyone is getting it. We need booster shots that are at least as effective as the flu shots.
@erictopol Husband and I got the bivalvent shot in October. I assume there are no recommendations on the vaccine front for us at this point?
@erictopol Thank you so much!!!! 😊 Now I can read it!!
@erictopol Based on what's been found more recently about covid's damaging effect on the immune system (as well as the anecdotal evidence that everyone is still getting covid) I think we're reaching the point where it's no longer accurate to imply that large numbers of infections are a layer of protection in the US. Unless they can develop a vaccine that truly stops infections, we're going to need to lean much more heavily on absolute prevention w/ air quality measures

@erictopol

It would help if Biden would share about XBB.1.5 and what we need to do to protect ourselves and the importance of supporting researchers!!

I am not so much tired of COVID, I am, rather, tired of ignorance and denial.

#WearAMask #Wear#Covid #XBB

@OldeHippi @erictopol Ignorance and denial@are also epidemic.

@erictopol Thanks. Re this, “ to develop the next-generation vaccines that will block infections, such as universal, variant-proof vaccines with extended duration of protection.”

It should be possible to find and target an antigen common to all variants, yes?

@erictopol Thank you for your efforts!

Science is wonderful, but when it is distorted and employed irresponsibly to make a pandemic seem over when it is not, then we need to call out those who are doing this. Their words and deeds will contribute to more illness and death. 

“The Asteroid, Covid, and the Selling of Scientific Progress”

https://upnight.com/2023/01/08/first-lets-kill-all-of-the-philosophers-covid-and-the-use-and-abuse-of-science/

The Asteroid, Covid, and the Selling of Scientific&nbsp;Progress

UP@NIGHT
@MitchellA @erictopol Excellent article. I’d like to see a poll and subsequent analysis of news sources people use for information, official and unofficial, on the virus and pandemic. My own unofficial and anecdotal ‘polling’ in my rural community dashes any hope of people receiving accurate, reliable and credible information. Some of the comments I hear makes me question the average mental state & intelligence of people.

@lzvolk @erictopol

Thank you for the kind words about my post.

@erictopol glad to see you posting on Mastodon again. Thank you for all you do!
@erictopol People aren’t listening; people don’t care. It’s remarkably stupid and dangerous.

@erictopol You're right, it's nowhere near acceptable.

My prediction for a future mutant variant of Omicron is that it develops the ability to create a severe, debilitating symptom that will devastate the population.

Then everyone will be crying that they didn't do something more.

Leaving this to its own devices is the dumbest thing the Government can do. Literally everything gets better with practice.

@the_Effekt @erictopol Politics is itself a disease;). (Satire intended)
@erictopol Excellent piece. Read it and take heed

@erictopol
Public health communications about COVID19 are complex:
The best advice that can be given to a group of 280 million people with the aim of producing the best outcome for the whole group can be very different to what the best advice would be for a sub-group or for an individual.

eg. The early "General public don't need to mask" message had the effect of keeping masks more available for medical workers, which in turn would allow hospitals to keep functioning if things went very bad.

@skua @erictopol True. Have heard that rebuttal still as an excuse ( ‘justification’ is invalid) not to wear mask. Regardless, “best” advice can also have agency depending on messenger(s), eg intention not in interests of public health, but instead, political support or status of same messenger’s affiliate group.
Messages without full context are often as useless as no message.
@lzvolk @erictopol
Yes.
And I don't have access to the data and advice that the COVID czar does, and the transcript of his week before Christmas interview indicates to me that he was wrestling to deliberately present a positive upbeat message.
I still have some (low) confidence that the (personally worrying) positive message was tailored to be the "best general advice to produce the best outcome for a group of 280 million people" on the basis of the best available science.
Easily be wrong.
@erictopol thank you, this is a needed wake up call. I’ve been wanting to get Novavax as a booster as it seems both to be more effective and have fewer side effects. Any idea on when or if that might be approved?
@erictopol @crosscutanne Thank you for including screenshots bc your piece is behind the ever present #washingtonpost paywall.
The coronavirus is speaking. It’s saying it’s not done with us.

The newest dominant strain of covid shows that it's a mistake to let down our guard.

The Washington Post