1/ H/t @ActuaryByDay for analysis.
🏴 and 🏴 ONS 2 weeks’ ONS data.
‼️🥺😳 26% (nearly 3000) more deaths than the pre pandemic 5 yr avg in the week before Xmas (w/e 23 Dec)
The previous week (w/e 16 Dec) 1,639 more deaths compared to the 2015-19 average. That’s 15% more, also a bigger excess than we had been seeing.
The week before Xmas in England & Wales there were 429 Covid deaths - so not 1/6th of the total excess
2/. 72% of deaths with COVID mentioned on the death cert had it listed as underlying cause, so that is rising too.
NHS pressures due to political obduracy appear to be killing people avoidably.
And the post Xmas period where NHS Critical incidents were highest, deaths have yet to be reported on.
Expect the data to be delayed due to bank holidays.
3/ Woah! I’ve just seen additional tweets added to @ActuaryByDay thread.
Look at that graph based on deaths by date of death!
Per Stuart MacDonald
“Here’s how yesterday’s ONS deaths data look when we consider (modelled) date of death rather than date the death was registered.
I’ve marked up acute factors on the chart but chronic factors like NHS pressure are there throughout, contributing to continuous excess for 9 months.”
4/. And I have also just seen this @SkyNews_UK story on the data and based on an interview with @ActuaryByDay
Look at the percentage increase in deaths at home! 37.5% than the 5yr avg.
These climbed during the pandemic.
Now too many people can’t even get to hospital.
How are deaths in ambulances and hospital car parks counted?
5/. Look at the ambulance delays graph!
Imagine being one of the people waiting for an ambulance in Category 2 - those for things like heart attacks and strokes -
Now waiting ON OVERAGE over an hour rather than the 18 minute target.
That’s the difference between life and death for many and mild disability to severe disability for even more.
6/. And now look at the waiting times for admission in A&E.
In November, almost half of people attending major A&Es had to wait more than four hours to be seen - the worst level on record. And more people had to wait over 12 hours to be admitted to hospital after being assessed in A&E than did over 10 years from the start of 2011 to end of 2020.
For every 72 people waiting 12hrs to be admitted to hospital after arriving at A&E, there would be one additional death.
@