Martijn GrootenA group of Chinese researchers claims it can break 2048-bit RSA using a quantum-ish computer and it's worth reading Schneier's comments https://www.schneier.com/blog/archives/2023/01/breaking-rsa-with-a-quantum-computer.html
Wladimir Palant@martijn_grooten Well, they don’t actually claim that they *can* break 2048-bit RSA, they rather say that they *could* break it on future quantum computers. So far they only managed to factorize a 48 bit integer and extrapolate the results.
Also, in my understanding this sentence means that it isn’t clear whether cracking an RSA key will happen in a reasonable time:
> It should be pointed out that the quantum speedup of the algorithm is unclear due to the ambiguous convergence of QAOA
Not that I understand the terminology, but presumably there are unknowns related to the characteristics of these future quantum computers.
Even so, these results are quite remarkable of course.