We could keep writing these long explanations of "what went wrong with the polls" after every election OR we could simply devote much less attention to these polls in the first place.
Votes matter. Polls do not.
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/12/31/us/politics/polling-election-2022-red-wave.html
On October 19, 2022, the New York Times ran a story with the headline, "Democrats’ Feared Red October Has Arrived." The purpose of the story was to explain why the Democrats will lose badly in the midterm election, which was still nearly three weeks away
On October 19, 2022, the New York Times — America's "paper of record" — ran a story with the headline, "Democrats’ Feared Red October Has Arrived." The purpose of the story was to explain why the Democrats will lose badly in the midterm election, which was still nearly three weeks away.
"When [elections] break, they usually break in one direction," NYT reporter Blake Hounshell wrote. "And right now, all the indicators on my political dashboard are blinking red — as in, toward Republicans."
On October 19, 2022, the New York Times — America's "paper of record" — ran a story with the headline, "Democrats’ Feared Red October Has Arrived." The purpose of the story was to explain why the Democrats will lose badly in the midterm election, which was still nearly three weeks away.
Even if media predictions were correct, they represent a style of political reporting that is dysfunctional. Campaign coverage is increasingly focused on anticipating who will win through polling analysis. But politics is unpredictable.
On October 19, 2022, the New York Times — America's "paper of record" — ran a story with the headline, "Democrats’ Feared Red October Has Arrived." The purpose of the story was to explain why the Democrats will lose badly in the midterm election, which was still nearly three weeks away.
@juddlegum Maybe it's time for media outlets to stop entrusting their elections coverage to math majors, and instead start consulting people who run or ran campaigns for a living?
The result of the mid-terms was not that surprising and was completely in-line with established polling houses' numbers in mid-October (when this headline was published) and beyond.
For example, This Sienna result from October 9-12 https://scri.siena.edu/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/US1022LV-Crosstabs.pdf showed an R+4 environment nationally and we ended up at ~R+3.4.
But what does that number, on its own, really tell you? Without context, almost nothing.
Does that number represent a significant change from a prior survey? Did the polling house weight the sample differently from previous surveys or from other pollsters (that could tell you they're thinking differently about the shape of the electorate)? Did the number precede/succeed a significant external event or a change in strategy/tactics?
That kind of context is best provided by folks who have had skin in the game. Ignoring the context in which a set of numbers was generated and simply reporting on a horse race does a huge disservice to those interested in politics, elections, and campaigns.
Exactly right!
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