Chris Nelder đŸ€˜Dec 31, 2022
As a rule I don't do long đŸ§” (hey that's what podcasts are for!), but it's the end of the year and a feel like our most recent show might have gotten a bit lost in the holiday madness. So, with your forbearance, here I go...
Show threadChris Nelder đŸ€˜Dec 31, 2022

At @TransitionShow we closed out the year with a banger episode on paths to a 100% clean grid: https://mastodon.energy/@TransitionShow/109552861032118561

People have been asking how we can maintain a reliable, 100% clean power grid, so I thought I’d highlight a few points here.

For the full discussion of all these points, become a member of @TransitionShow! Just $60/yr gets you full access to our entire catalog of 188 full, 60-90 min long shows, in-depth show notes (100+ sources for some shows), & more!
OK let’s dive in
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Energy Transition Show (@[email protected])

New episode just dropped! In Ep. 188, NREL senior research fellow Paul Denholm shares insights from two recent papers: One on pathways to a 100% clean power grid, and one on ways to meet the "last 10%" challenge, including seasonal storage. Plus: Debunking our favorite anti-transition myths! https://xenetwork.org/ets/episodes/episode-188-getting-to-a-100-percent-clean-grid/

mastodon.energy
Show threadChris Nelder đŸ€˜Dec 31, 2022
First: Reliability isn’t about specific technologies and there isn’t one answer (Batteries! Nukes! CCS! Etc.)
Nor is it correct to model systems by larding up renewables with battery costs and other system costs (like transmission) in order to make them look and act exactly like the “dispatchable” conventional power plants they’re replacing. That’s not how any of this works.
As this expert modeler explains, system reliability is a *system property* arising from a varied mix of resources.
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Show threadChris Nelder đŸ€˜Dec 31, 2022
So, yeah. All that stuff you may have heard about how the LCOE of renewables is wrong because it doesn’t account for the “extra” system costs of making each individual solar and wind plant 100% dispatchable and doesn’t include the costs of “backup” by conventional thermal generators or massive battery arrays is just totally wrong. That’s not how grid modelers, operators, buyers, or regulators think. That’s just anti-transition propaganda from people who don’t know what they’re talking about.
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Show threadChris Nelder đŸ€˜Dec 31, 2022
Next: Believe it or not, grid modeling experts like the NREL researcher we interviewed in this show are aware that the wind doesn’t always blow and the sun doesn’t always shine! In fact, they knew that before most people had ever heard the words “energy transition!” And they can still show that there are *multiple* pathways to an affordable, 100% clean grid, including any need for seasonal storage or riding out a dunkelflaute! Amazingly, these veteran modelers are not idiots!
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Show threadChris Nelder đŸ€˜Dec 31, 2022
Third: There are tradeoffs to each solution set, as the research we discuss here shows. Every set has its advantages, drawbacks, and different likelihoods depending on how the world evolves, and the actual solutions we wind up with some decades from now is not knowable today. So honest researchers don’t pretend to know it. (And you should not believe anyone who says they do.) Instead, they explore possible outcomes using scenarios. It’s the only way to deal with the uncertainty.
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Show threadChris Nelder đŸ€˜Dec 31, 2022
Fourth: No one (including the researchers who develop them) expects any one of the scenarios used in a model to be THE outcome. They are only useful for exploring what the tradeoffs between different solutions are. The actual result is *definitely* going to be “none of the above” and a mix of technologies that are formally unknowable today. That’s just the reality.
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Fiacre RougieuxDec 31, 2022
Show threadChris Nelder đŸ€˜
Fifth: The potential of demand-side technologies, efficiency, and rooftop solar is absolutely enormous, but no one, including veteran modelers like our guest here, really has a good way to estimate how much of a role they will play, because so much depends on what regulators, legislators, utilities, service providers, and customers will do. The sudden advent of an “Uber for demand response” or whatever is impossible to predict. But we can be sure that we underestimate them today!
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Dec 31, 2022 at 8:05pmWeb
Show threadChris Nelder đŸ€˜Dec 31, 2022
Finally: Avoiding the #energytransition entirely and just continuing with the current power grid architecture and markets is *not an option.* We must prepare for the changes that are already unfolding—including the elimination of fossil fueled power—largely *beyond* the reach of regulators and technocrats. It’s part of the nature of the transition that it unfolds in an unplanned way according to its own internal logic. And that’s OK! (See Ep. 178 for more on that topic.)
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Show threadChris Nelder đŸ€˜Dec 31, 2022

So do give a listen to Ep. 188, and hear how the #energytransition is simultaneously certain to be doable and affordable, and totally uncertain in its final form. We answered a lot of mistaken ideas and tropes in this episode, and frankly, it was long overdue.
And we hope you will join us in 2023 for another year of progress toward a 100% clean grid. Who knows what it will bring? One thing for sure: We will end the year better off than where we started it.

And Happy New Year!

/end

Show threadSmokeyGeoDec 31, 2022
@chrisnelder it would be helpful if these podcasts were transcribed. Can skim the text in 5 min or less as opposed to investing 30+ min listening to audio. Thanks!!!
Show threadChris Nelder đŸ€˜Dec 31, 2022
@smokeygeo ?? We have an awesome interactive transcript player that tracks the entire transcript of every episode! You just need to be a member and log into our website to use it.
Show threadSmokeyGeoDec 31, 2022
@chrisnelder ps. my mother in law, who despises Trump, still has a lot of incandescent bulbs in her retirement home. I've pointed out to her that LED's are a LOT better but she says she's willing to pay more for electricity so why should anyone else care? How to get thru to her??
Show threadRob_B_RainsDec 31, 2022
@smokeygeo @chrisnelder they are transcribed I think on the premium service
Show threadJakob SchlandtDec 31, 2022
@chrisnelder Terrific thread! Every single point is well made. You are fed up in a very productive way with the simplistic arguments of transition sceptics.
Show threadChris Nelder đŸ€˜Dec 31, 2022
@JakobSchlandt That is possibly the nicest thing anyone has ever said about my career.
Show threadPaul EastwoodJan 1, 2023
@JakobSchlandt @chrisnelder I agree, fantastic thread, thank you. You are also helping to strengthen #EnergyMastadon and bridge the gap for those of us who are making the transition from the other site. The more that engagement increases and diversifies over here the less reason there is to keep checking back over there. Thank you!
Show threadSmokeyGeoDec 31, 2022
@chrisnelder 1 aspect is charging infrastructure for EV's is IMMENSE. a few fast chargers for a hotel = the entire electrical demand for that hotel. this is NOT easy. Ditto for infrastructure along interstates for ppl needing alternatives to gas stations. the capex to double capacity is humongous...
Show threadChris Nelder đŸ€˜Dec 31, 2022

@smokeygeo I'll assume you are unaware that I just spent 5 years of my professional career working on EV charging infrastructure? See:

https://www.rmi.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/04/RMI_Electric_Vehicles_as_DERs_Final_V2.pdf

https://www.rmi.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/04/eLab_EVgo_Fleet_and_Tariff_Analysis_2017.pdf

https://www.rmi.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/RMI-From-Gas-To-Grid.pdf

https://info.rmi.org/l/310101/download-26288-/23pz3gx

https://rmi.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/09/DCFC_Rate_Design_Study.pdf

https://rmi.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/01/RMI-EV-Charging-Infrastructure-Costs.pdf

https://info.rmi.org/l/310101/download-27392-/26mszsm

https://www.oregon.gov/odot/Programs/Pages/TEINA.aspx

Show threadSmokeyGeoDec 31, 2022
@chrisnelder will look at- thx! it is really really hard!!!!!
Show threadkscleanenergyDec 31, 2022
@chrisnelder I would add that there are new hydro technologies, both in-conduit and run-of-river, that will help the American West transition. The tech is less intrusive to fish and habitat and can support local microgrids. Piping the millions of miles of open canals will save water and produce GWs to power
Show threadChris Nelder đŸ€˜Dec 31, 2022
@keithkueny No doubt, plus other technologies that are pre-commercial today. But I will say it again: In many ways, it's *not a technology story*. Per my pinned toot.
Show threadkscleanenergyDec 31, 2022
@chrisnelder Totally agree.