Dr. Lucky Tran Dec 30, 2022

This is going under the radar, but looks like the CDC guidelines for masking are switching back to COVID-19 Community *TRANSMISSION* levels instead of "Community levels."

That means the CDC now recommends universal masking for **71%** of counties in the US, instead of only 9%.

#COVID #COVID19

Show threadDr. Lucky Tran Dec 30, 2022

As a reminder, earlier in 2022, the CDC changed their COVID maps over to "Community Levels", which is more an indicator of whether hospitals are full, rather than transmission alone. It effectively downplayed the amount of COVID spread.

#COVID #COVID19

Show threadDr. Lucky Tran 

Here's a good explanation from the People's CDC about why the CDC "Community Levels" map is problematic, and downplays the state of the pandemic, exposing more people to harm.

https://theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/apr/03/peoples-cdc-covid-guidelines

#COVID #COVID19

The CDC is beholden to corporations and lost our trust. We need to start our own

We’re epidemiologists, nurses and physicians, artists and biologists. We have come together with a common anger at the US government’s handling of Covid

The Guardian
Dec 30, 2022 at 9:03pmWeb
Show threadDr. Lucky Tran Dec 30, 2022

If it's true that the CDC is switching back to COVID community *transmission* for their masking guidelines, that's a good thing because people need to mask when COVID spread goes up, not just when hospitals are full. It also means the CDC is really worried about new variants.

#COVID #COVID19

Show threadDr. Lucky Tran Dec 30, 2022

The other implication of the CDC switching masking guidelines back to COVID Community *Transmission* is that many places can't use the "we are following CDC guidelines" excuse anymore.

Under current CDC guidelines, mask mandates should be in place for 71% of counties in the US.

#COVID #COVID19

Show threadDr. Lucky Tran Dec 30, 2022

SOURCES

CDC tweet recommending masks during high transmission: https://twitter.com/CDCgov/status/1608875618497867776

CDC Community Transmission Map: http://covidtransmissionmap.com

CDC Community Levels Guidelines and Map: https://cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/your-health/covid-by-county.html

CDC on Twitter

“Do your part to help protect yourself, your community, & our hospitals:  -Stay up to date on #COVID19 vaccines  -Test before going to large gatherings  -Wear a mask if you're in an area w/ high community transmission or if you choose  https://t.co/DmfPOAQk9u #XBB.1.5”

Twitter
Show threadDr. Lucky Tran Dec 30, 2022

If this turns out to be a mistake from the CDC's social team, it just shows how bad & confusing the CDC Community Levels map is. Regardless, CDC should revert mask guidelines back to transmission. People need to take precautions when cases rise, not when hospitals are already full.

#COVID #COVID19

Show threadTJDec 30, 2022
@luckytran maybe the social team has some kind of brain fog caused by a “mystery virus”
Show threadVoronDec 30, 2022
@luckytran Covid and public health in general are not a priority for this, nor has public health been for any administration in the last 30 years. It’s been either antagonistic or “what’s the minimum we can do, because of political pressure from our base”
Show threadCarol (Connie's Mom) miss youDec 31, 2022
@luckytran amen to this!!!
Show threadThe Lady ParabellumDec 31, 2022

@luckytran if there's one bubble that the covid pandemic burst for me, it was the understanding that the CDC is a political body, with no connection in any way to health and human services.

I lost all respect for them, and came to the conclusion: I'm on my own.

I'll continue to wear P100 in moderate risk environments, N95 in low risk, and PAPR in high risk. I've not contracted the disease, have no desire to, and will take the steps *I and I ALONE* deem necessary to continue avoiding it. The CDC can just go back to kissing ass and stealing money, like the rest of the DC criminals.

Show threadCorn Woman 🌽Dec 31, 2022
@luckytran what do you think the percent chance is that someone copy/pasted an old template and this is unintentional?
Show threadElizabeth Loves DEIDec 30, 2022
@luckytran, I just looked up my county (King County, WA: I live in Seattle). The text result says community transmission is "low". The color coded map says "substantial". The color coded map doesn't have a single county that's marked "low" in the entire state. The CDC is so confusing.
Show threadDr. Lucky Tran Dec 30, 2022
@Dr_Elizabeth97 Yes, they are being intentionally confusing, in part to downplay the pandemic and allow places to justify dropping precautions prematurely. You should go by the transmission map (covidtransmissionmap.com), which shows substantial. (The low refers to community levels, which weights hospital capacity)
Show threadElizabeth Loves DEIDec 31, 2022
@luckytran , thank you! I just assume that I should be masking indoors when in a public setting. I never stopped. I hate the lack of clear guidance from two administrations. Thank you for what you do!
Show threadmindstalkDec 31, 2022
@Dr_Elizabeth97 @luckytran I estimate that 0.5-4% of the population has covid at any moment, pretty much everywhere.
Show threadWit’s EndDec 31, 2022
@Dr_Elizabeth97 @luckytran Also— since they (“they”) ditched the previous simple Covid dashboard in favor of the impenetrable new one, I’ve had no idea really where our (also seattle) level stands. All the metrics seem to randomly present either rates or numbers and I’ve found myself using a calculator to try to reconcile the information. Gah!!
Show threadElizabeth Loves DEIDec 31, 2022
@wits_end @luckytran , that change was frustrating to me, as well. I stopped using that tool. I don't really know what to do except keep doing what I've been doing. I would rather not live like a semi-hermit if I didn't have to.
Show threadWit’s EndJan 1, 2023
@Dr_Elizabeth97 @luckytran Ok I just found this page, much clearer than the other one I was referring to: https://doh.wa.gov/emergencies/covid-19/data-dashboard. Happy New Year, may the light be with us soon.
COVID-19 Data Dashboard

Toggle navigation Menu

Washington State Department of Health
Show threadElizabeth Loves DEIJan 1, 2023
@wits_end @luckytran, thank you!
Show threadSorry, not sorry I’m Canadian 🇨🇦Dec 30, 2022
@luckytran Lol, what are the chances that Alabama is a pristine blue in a sea of red. Lack of data transparency will kill people
Show threadDr. Lucky Tran Dec 30, 2022

@hannsf

Looks like it's because the AL dashboard was last updated December 23, 2022, and due to technical issues won't refresh until January 6, 2023.

Not great to have such a big data lag in the holidays given the surge we are in and the worries about new variants.

Sources:
COVIDtransmissionmap.com
https://alpublichealth.maps.arcgis.com/apps/MapSeries/index.html?appid=d84846411471404c83313bfe7ab2a367

Story Map Series

This story map was created with the Story Map Series application in ArcGIS Online.

Show threadRee the perpetually wearyDec 30, 2022
@hannsf @luckytran Probably they either aren't reporting cases or aren't even testing. That's why South Dakota has its blue spots.
Show threaddawnfryJan 4, 2023
@luckytran @hannsf
Missouri is intentionally not transmitting Covid-19 illness information in multiple rural counties and assigning deaths to other sources, and we are still almost 100% bright red on the chart. Our vaccinated rate is somewhere around 50% almost wholly because of a couple of cities, and it’s still almost impossible to get people to where masks.
Show threadEthan 🌒Dec 30, 2022
@luckytran data for alabama can’t be right lol. even my tiny, low-population county in north georgia is red!! glad i’m masking up at work today.
Show threadMichaelDec 30, 2022

@luckytran

My epidemiologist friends tell
me that the metric to look at is the "community levels."

Here is the CDC's "Community Levels" map as of today.

The CDC is confusing because it has lots of maps to choose from, some mostly green and come mostly red, but not much interpretation of the practical value of what they mean.

Show threadMike JohnsonDec 31, 2022
@mimarek1 @luckytran Yes, and that's why the CDC apparently switching from using Community Levels to Community Transmission is such a notable change. So notable that I wonder if the CDC's tweet is in error.
Show threadDr. Lucky Tran Dec 31, 2022
@mimarek1 I work in public health and so have been tracking the CDC's changes for a while. Please read the thread. It explains why the Community Level map you shared is problematic, as it's based mainly on hospital capacity. The transmission metric is better for judging risk, so it's good news if the CDC is switching back.
Show threadMichaelDec 31, 2022

@luckytran

The organization I am part of treats Covid Act Now as highly dependable, and that site has not made a change yet.

https://www.covidactnow.org/?s=44463192

U.S. COVID Risk & Vaccine Tracker

Covid Act Now has real-time tracking of your community's COVID risk level. Explore how your community is doing.

Covid Act Now
Show threadFenix🔥 Resistance Starts NOWDec 31, 2022
@luckytran Fuck the CDC. They’ve been infiltrated, politicized & delegitimatized. They’re now essentially worthless
Show threadNiftyLinksDec 31, 2022

@luckytran

What is going on with Alabama? There's specifically a "No Data" option, but it looks like the entire state's data is stale for the past couple of weeks.

Maybe APHD just took off for the rest of the year around December 20th, that's consistent with their most recent News Update.

https://www.alabamapublichealth.gov/blog/index.html

Alabama Public Health Newsroom

Show threadNA Dec 31, 2022
@luckytran Imagine that. Finally acknowledging what should have been done all along.
Show threadSupposeNotJan 2, 2023
@luckytran @brooklynmarie I’m noticing that “moderate” and” low“ zones seem to correlate with regions where I don’t think a lot of data collection is happening… any way to check if that impression is correct?
Show threadHat. AuDHD cat 😷🌺🍉🌻🔻Jan 2, 2023
@luckytran good. Maybe more people will stop making excuses about mitigation being impossible now.
Show threadIgor Rad🇺🇦🇺🇦🇺🇦Jan 2, 2023
@luckytran haha yeah right, Alabama
Show threadRod_RescuemanJan 8, 2023
@luckytran Umm that all-low look for Alabama is a fkn lie.
Show threadPamVT41Dec 31, 2022
@luckytran Its about time. I mask in public with an N95. People entering my home must mask. I assume everyone I meet has covid. I have not contracted covid yet that I know of.