Dare Obasanjo

The overriding ethos of Silicon Valley for the past decade or so has been to grow fast then exit before people can figure out if it’s a good business or not.

An interesting question is if VCs & founders will pivot to creating businesses or just cut costs and ride it out to the next bull market?

Dec 29, 2022 at 10:25pmWeb
Show threadAlex RussellDec 29, 2022
@carnage4life the whole thing has been premised on an uninterrupted flow of legacy businesses that you could "just put a chip in" (but mostly, software) to fix...but I strongly suspect that we're towards the end of the easy wins on that front. It's hard to imagine an Uber or WeWork without real returns in sustainable businesses being harder to achieve on the back of improved automation.
Show threadAlex RussellDec 29, 2022

@carnage4life put differently, what if the sectoral disruption S-curve got to the flat bit?

You can see why everyone's hoping ML/AI works out.

Show threadキャリーDec 29, 2022

@carnage4life The scams will just get increasingly convoluted to hide the fact that they aren't viable businesses. Founders will eventually find a fool to part with their money. Just look at Andreessen Horowitz investing tons into NFTs and Web3.

¯\_(ツ)_/¯

Show threadDan HugoDec 29, 2022

@carnage4life
Decade?

I landed in silly valley in 1993, I would say it started back then and only got worse (with all of the social chaos and division as bonus…)

Show threadJoel GascoigneDec 29, 2022
@carnage4life couldn't agree more, that's been my observation and the more years I have run Buffer as a real business, the more stark this has felt. I really can't see a while industry shifting fundamentally, probably just more failures for a brief period of time.
Show threadSkiBumMeDec 29, 2022

@carnage4life #Uber has lost billions of dollars so far, and is unlikely to ever be truly profitable to anywhere near the extent that they could recoup the losses. Remember when Uber was going to “revolutionize logistics”?

https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2022/08/hubert-horan-can-uber-ever-deliver-part-thirty-one-ubers-legitimate-cumulative-losses-top-32-billion-pl-improvements-driven-by-much-higher-fares-and-multi-billion-dollar-transfers-from.html

Hubert Horan: Can Uber Ever Deliver? Part Thirty-One: Uber’s Legitimate Cumulative Losses Top $32 Billion; P&L Improvements Driven by Much Higher Fares and Multi-Billion Dollar Transfers From Drivers to Shareholders | naked capitalism

Even big fare hikes and cuts to driver pay have failed to produce profits at Uber. And these pricing changes are not likely to be sustainable.

naked capitalism
Show threadEric WolakDec 29, 2022
@carnage4life I’ve been wondering why layoffs are the answer at so many places. Why do you have so many employees that you can’t put to work generating value??
Show threadPhilip MartinDec 29, 2022

@carnage4life

They’ve never been about creating jobs, just wealth for themselves. They will cut costs and coast until the next exploitable bubbles start to form and then… BOOM! Back with a vengeance.

Show threadShannonDec 30, 2022
@carnage4life @nova Ride it out I assume… the dot com crash was the first version of this. There have also been two crypto crashes as well. There’s always an upcoming good market to take advantage of people’s greed.
Show threadSasha AkhaviDec 30, 2022
@carnage4life As long as the system incentivizes corner-cutting, participants in the system will cut corners.
Show threadSteve SaxonDec 30, 2022

@carnage4life I think they had bet on blockchain, but it seemed to most like snake oil. Now to separate it from crypto currencies they tried rebranding it as web3. But nobody is fooled. So short of a more convincing innovation that nobody saw coming, I guess we’re riding it out.

Of course, ChatGPT et al could massively disrupt Google’s search (and ad) business, but I’m not sure how you monetize it... My guess is that won’t stop VCs from investing in the hope someone figures it out.

Show threaddata afDec 30, 2022

@carnage4life considering they have never made anything other than quick money, and didn’t build anything lasting I suspect they’re going to ride it out and wait for the next bull.

I despise VC. Yes, all VC.