michaelDec 20, 2022

This week is design week for the American energy system. People who rely on heat pumps will find out they weren’t designed for this scenario.

We will need backup: district heating, resistance heaters, baseboards, etc. And a LOT of reliable electricity.
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RT @coloradowx
Per @NWSBoulder's afternoon forecast discussion: "If everything comes together, there is a remote chance that DIA ties or breaks the December record low temperature …
https://twitter.com/coloradowx/status/1605017818679742464

Josh Larson on Twitter

“Per @NWSBoulder's afternoon forecast discussion: "If everything comes together, there is a remote chance that DIA ties or breaks the December record low temperature of -25°F set way back in December of 1876" Thursday morning. #COwx #weather #Denver”

Twitter
Show threadSteven V.Dec 20, 2022

@michael I have a friend in Chicago who added a heat pump to replace their A/C. They have central heating so it can be augmented by their existing gas furnace.

I've already talked to them and we agree that it will be an interesting test of their Bosch heat pump!

Show threadmichaelDec 20, 2022

@jamesbondsv yes it will be interesting to see how these new systems hold up.

In the long run, it’s going to be a monumental effort to get gas out of the system entirely.

Good thread on the topic from @Ember42 up in Ontario they are conservatively estimating a 200% increase in peak heating electricity demand in the coming decades from all these pumps

https://twitter.com/ember421/status/1592330259470639105

Jesse on Twitter

“@BrianSetzler Absolutely. But I worry that iterated incrementalism will get us stuck on a local minimum that does not get NG out of it's major roll in heating. Sure, reduce it, but not enough. And if we get stuck there, getting the remainder out could mean rebuilding much of what we have done”

Twitter
Show threadmichaelDec 20, 2022

@jamesbondsv @Ember42

Imagine in 30 years we have a polar vortex like this and most folks are on electric heaters. Peak electricity in cold events like this can’t be managed like a heat wave. Asking consumers to shave demand means people go cold.

We will need a metric boat load of new capacity from reliable sources - solar and wind can’t do the job

Show threadJesseDec 20, 2022
@michael @jamesbondsv That is why we need to design for the edge cases...
If we get everyone to install resistance backed up ASHPs, we could sleep walk into a catastrophy!
Show threadryangsDec 20, 2022
@Ember42 @michael @jamesbondsv Agree. Chicago needs to continue to take advantage of its robust gas infrastructure by encouraging or mandating higher efficiency boilers and furnaces, rather than switch old buildings to all-electric. And before anything else, huge incentives for new windows and better insulation for all the 100-year-old buildings. And ERVs/HRVs to ensure indoor air quality, once the air leaks are sealed.
Show threadJesseDec 20, 2022
@ryangs @michael @jamesbondsv that's the trick. How do we design a system that does not need NG, but still can meet peak heating demands.
Leaving NG in place means that there will not be a full decarbonisation. And I'm not convinced NG is a viable industry for extreme peaking, as the demand swings will be huge as will the infrastructure and maintenance required.
Show threadryangsDec 20, 2022
@Ember42 @michael @jamesbondsv There are so many moving parts, and I don't personally frame the challenge as designing for one particular energy source, but rather, "how can we dramatically reduce the energy usage of buildings?" How the energy gets to the user is important, too, but first work on the demand.
Show threadryangsDec 20, 2022
@Ember42 @michael @jamesbondsv First, how many commercial, industrial, and public buildings in Chicagoland are still running on ancient boiler systems that are overheating unoccupied buildings during peak demand events? I'd bet that's eating up a large portion of capacity.
Show threadryangs
@Ember42 @michael @jamesbondsv Next look at old residential buildings, like the 1890's three-flat I used to live in, where the forced-air furnace would run constantly on cold days and barely be able to keep the first floor at 68 F. What heat we weren't losing through the 120-year-old windows was going up to heat the floors above, or being lost through the uninsulated ducts that were running through the unheated basement.
Dec 20, 2022 at 6:15pmWeb
Show threadJesseDec 20, 2022
@ryangs @michael @jamesbondsv improving building efficiency is part of it.
And one energy source definitely won't cover it. This is the main show!
Note, it's not just Chicago. Look at the extent of the current polar vortex! Without NG, nowhere in that region would have any spare power to export. Relying on imports to cover peaks won't work.