Gregg GonsalvesDec 18, 2022

Just a winter warning. We're getting better at preventing #COVID hospitalizations and deaths when people are optimally boosted, have access to treatment and care, but the #Omicron variants are especially efficient spreaders, which means absolute numbers this winter could be bleak. This tweet from @ariskatzourakis is evergreen in a pandemic. 1/

https://twitter.com/ariskatzourakis/status/1488283668632252418

Aris Katzourakis on Twitter

“If you are comparing IFRs and forgetting R0s, well...”

Twitter
Show threadGregg GonsalvesDec 18, 2022

#Vaccines are awesome. But how many Americans have had the new boosters? Answer: about 13.5%. 2/

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/12/16/health/covid-boosters.html

New Covid Booster Shots Cut Risk of Hospitalization by Half, CDC Reports

The research was conducted in part when older variants of the coronavirus were spreading. Other factors may have influenced the conclusions.

Show threadGregg GonsalvesDec 18, 2022

And #Paxlovid? Well, again, many who might benefit from it, don't get it and this is most acute among African-Americans. 3/.

https://khn.org/news/article/paxlovid-covid-sticker-shock-insurance/amp/

Paxlovid Has Been Free So Far. Next Year, Sticker Shock Awaits.

The government soon will stop paying for the covid drug that has proved to be the most effective at keeping patients alive and out of the hospital.

Kaiser Health News
Show threadGregg GonsalvesDec 18, 2022

And thus, #COVID will be the third leading cause of death in the USA for the third year running. And while the early part of the year drove these deaths, in October 2022 #COVID has only dropped to sixth place. 4/

https://www.healthsystemtracker.org/brief/covid-19-leading-cause-of-death-ranking/#Average%20daily%20deaths%20in%20the%20United%20States,%20by%20cause%20(March%202020%20-%20October%202022)

COVID-19 leading cause of death ranking - Peterson-KFF Health System Tracker

Note: For our prior analysis on COVID-19 mortality preventable by vaccines, click here. This brief examines how deaths from COVID-19 rank among other leading causes of death in the U.S. At the time of this brief, COVID-19 is on track to be the third leading cause of death in the U.S. for the third year […]

Peterson-KFF Health System Tracker
Show threadGregg GonsalvesDec 18, 2022
So cases matter. A lower IFR with a high R0 still means trouble particularly in a populace under-vaccinated and with poor access to care (i.e., the real world). 5/
Show threadGregg GonsalvesDec 18, 2022

So this is not 2020, things have gotten better, but this is not 2019. Allowing #SARSCOV2 to spread is bad policy, full-stop. 6/.

https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-022-00155-x

COVID-19: endemic doesn’t mean harmless

Rosy assumptions endanger public health — policymakers must act now to shape the years to come.

Show threadGregg GonsalvesDec 18, 2022
There is a devastating group-think now that we're done with #COVID, our hospitals aren't overflowing and we can mop up those who get sick with our expert tertiary care. 7/
Show threadGregg GonsalvesDec 18, 2022

But I said this last winter and I'll say it again: "Deciding this is the new normal is a choice—about whose lives really matter, and how many deaths we can tolerate." end/

#publichealth #epidemiology

https://www.thenation.com/article/society/covid-deaths-endemic/

Covid Year 2: About Suffering the Old Masters Were Never Wrong

Deciding this is the new normal is a choice—about whose lives really matter, and how many deaths we can tolerate.

The Nation
Show threadMoiDec 18, 2022
@gregggonsalves well, I remember when in the good ol days of early 2022, when the measures fell, we thought "surely when the kids start dying, they will do something". Well now we know that they are not doing anything, here in Germany officials are recommending swapping antibiotics with your neighbors if chemists can't get them. It's a Mad Max world now.
Show threadLipkDec 18, 2022
@travellator2 @gregggonsalves in The Netherlands the Minister of Health said vaccination doesn't take away the vulnerability of the vulnerable.
Show threadGregg GonsalvesDec 18, 2022
@Lipk @travellator2 In the United States, we say you-do-you, as long as you're vaccinated and have access to Paxlovid, no one else matters! Well, we don't say it out loud, but that is the rationale for national policy.
Show threadSpencer W Hunter
@gregggonsalves @Lipk @travellator2 Went to the mall yesterday & ran into Christmas crowds. Let’s just say if anyone was sick, it’ll be a real shitshow.
Dec 18, 2022 at 4:44pmWeb
Show threadLipkDec 18, 2022
@swhunter7 @gregggonsalves @travellator2 And next week family dinner with grandma. What could possibly go wrong