BroadwaybabytoDec 6, 2022
One more question for my #CovidCautious and more science literate friends! Trying to convince my dad - who’s thankfully been very careful as he’s following #PrecautionaryPrinciple - about the potential for long term immune system damage. He volunteers in an old age home and says the vast majority of residents who’ve had Covid had very minor illness and don’t appear to be getting any sicker or having immune issues - including the ones who were sick in the first wave. Granted this is anecdotal
Show threadNathanael NerodeDec 7, 2022

@broadwaybabyto

Well, one of the hard things to explain is that it's all probabilistic. People have trouble with probability. It's rolling the dice.

If 1000 people get shot with bullets, *some* of them are going to be pretty much fine.

It's even harder for people to understand when maybe 80% of people are OK after a first infection (while 20% have lingering symptoms or die).

Only 17% of people die from one round of Russian roulette.

But more rounds (reinfection) adds up.

Show threadNathanael NerodeDec 7, 2022

@broadwaybabyto The lack of understanding of probability has other ramifications.

So an infectious person with Covid spews millions or billions of Covid particles into the air. A single one can infect you.

A #P100 mask, well-fitting, stops 9997 out of 10,000 -- yes, it still lets some through. But your odds are much better.

Your nonspecific/innate immune system shreds over 99 out of 100. Again, one may get through, but it helps.

It's like Ukraine shooting down Russian missiles

Show threadNathanael NerodeDec 7, 2022

@broadwaybabyto Then, if you do get infected, it's a race between your adaptive immune system (trying to kill all the virus-infected cells) and the virus (trying to reproduce at high speed).

If you get infected with a larger dose of virus initially (more particles), the virus has a head start.

So even if one particle gets through your mask, it's better than hundreds getting through... etc.

Show threadNathanael Nerode

@broadwaybabyto (The vaccine also helps the immune system get started faster.)

And then, if your immune system wins the race pretty fast, maybe you're good and you're fine. But again, this is sort of random. Maybe the virus moves faster, and makes a lot of clots before the immune system catches up.

And again it's random where the clots go. Maybe they don't cause much damage, maybe they get in the wrong blood vessels and stop your heart.

Dec 7, 2022 at 12:39amWeb
Show threadNathanael NerodeDec 7, 2022

@broadwaybabyto

So I don't know how to summarize this.

Exposure to Covid is gambling with death and disability. And some people get lucky while gambling. But it's better to stack the deck in your favor.

Show threadJay MillerDec 7, 2022
@neroden @broadwaybabyto yup, I explained it to family with a die roll, on a roll of a 1 I poke you in the eye immediately and on a 6 I surprise poke you in the eye at a later date- how many times would you like to roll?
Show threadBroadwaybabytoDec 7, 2022
@neroden thank you. I will try and explain it that way. I think the scariest part is because it’s a Novel virus and it hasn’t been very long we don’t even know if it’s a dice roll. It could be 100% fatal in the long run. I doubt it - but that happened with HIV until better meds were developed. I feel like all these anti mask “freedom” people would feel differently if they knew they were signing up for a life beholden to drugs just to stay alive.