TheGentYYCDec 4, 2022

#Mastodon can be seen as 'a new way of doing things' for Twitter emigres. Another word for that is #Innovation. If we want to know how populations adopt innovations we refer to the #InnovationAdoptionCurve.

Throw rocks all day at those remaining otherwise decent Twitter folks that've not yet found their way to Masto but according to #TheCurve it's no mystery why: the needs of the #EarlyMajority are not yet met (it's the same for climate stuff) /1

Show threadTheGentYYCDec 4, 2022

When #Mastodon acquires #EarlyMajority the #DeathOfTwitter is only a matter of time.

Status as of today: the #MastodonPioneers (Innovators) came here #PreBirdSiteMeltdown & built this world. Meltdown strikes & early #BirdSiteEmigres have arrived (#EarlyAdopters).

The wide majority of decent Bird Site humans (#EarlyMajority) remain on Bird Site, awaiting a clear alternative complete with #WholeProductDevelopment & #WellEstablishedReferences. /2

Show threadTheGentYYCDec 4, 2022

Seize the #EarlyMajority and Bird Site is all but dead because the #LateMajority's prime motivation is #FOMO (fear of missing out/getting left behind) and can reliably be counted on to grudgingly follow the Early Majority. As for the #Laggards nobody anywhere should spare them a thought for any reason.

Thus Bird site's transition to dank backwater of racism/hatred/ignorance is complete & it will not be able to sustain itself. #BirdSite will die /3

Show threadCity Techie Dec 4, 2022
@TheGentYYC To get to the Early Majority stage, my guess is one of the big guys, Microsoft, Google or both, is likely to adopt ActivityPub (against the will of those originally here prior to Musk's takeover of the bird site) and implement it as part of their existing mail/social products that way corporate email addresses automatically become fediverse handles. Tumblr, Flickr + new for-profit startups will also adopt the protocol with niche products.
Show threadAdamDec 5, 2022

@citytechie @TheGentYYC I suspect that any effort to co-opt the fediverse like that will result in widespread defederation. They'd be forced to run their own silos.

Another great thing about fedi is that it wants those users but doesn't need them. Musk and Bardin desperately need eyes to sell to corporations - they'll die without them. We'll be fine. The pressure to compromise on values or through shortcuts is absent here.

Show threadCity Techie 
@breakfastmtn @TheGentYYC You might be able to defederate small startup networks like Post or right sites like Gab or Truth Social but you really can't ignore the big guys. They have billions of users and defederating from them would relegate the existing fediverse to irrelevance going forward. The existing indie fediverse will need a way to engage with big tech in order to thrive + have influence at standards bodies.
Dec 5, 2022 at 2:03amWeb
Show threadAdamDec 5, 2022

@citytechie @TheGentYYC I don't think there's general opposition to their involvement in fedi, but that's not the same as them co-opting it. Preventing that was the primary goal of creating Mastodon in the first place. It would relegate them to their own walled garden.

Google already tried to leverage their massive user base to brute force social media domination. It didn't go well and I don't think they have much appetite for Google+ 2.0.

Show threadAdamDec 5, 2022
@citytechie @TheGentYYC FWIW I also don't think Microsoft has enough lifeforce to do something so bold ;)