Jim Baird

'the heat wave was so unprecedented it essentially broke most of the standard tools used to measure the human influence on heat waves'

#ClimateCrisis #heat #health #science
https://phys.org/news/2022-11-climate-frequency-temperature-extreme.html

Study: Climate change is increasing the frequency and temperature of extreme heat waves

As California awakens to the worsening risk of extreme climate events, researchers are shedding new light on last year's anomalous and extreme Pacific Northwest heat wave. One study published this week said such heat waves could become 20 times more likely to occur if current carbon emissions continue unabated. Another said they may also be nearly 10 degrees hotter.

Phys.org
Nov 26, 2022 at 2:14amWeb
Show threadJim BairdNov 26, 2022

⚠️'A new study published in Nature concluded that the influence of a warming planet in pushing up ocean temperatures in the eastern Pacific will be detectable in the weather patterns in eight years — almost 𝟳𝟬 𝘆𝗲𝗮𝗿𝘀 earlier than previously thought'

#ClimateCrisis #soonerthanexpected #ActNow
https://www.ft.com/content/55512eae-201d-49b5-9d66-2fc3dcf3059a

Global floods and droughts will intensify sooner than expected, studies show

News, analysis and comment from the Financial Times, the worldʼs leading global business publication

Financial Times
Show threadanlomedadNov 27, 2022

@jimbaird22
Interesting. Paper on ENSO variability getting more extreme: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-022-33930-5
(Also note that opening FT article from Mastodon shows paywall while opening it from your Twitter post opens it fine.)

I wonder how that paper's model would react if the slowing AMOC were included.
A recent study on AMOC-ENSO suggested that the heat pileup in the tropical Atlantic reaches over South America and then drops down in ENSO1-2, causing permanent La Nina states. https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2022/jun/07/why-the-collapse-of-an-atlantic-ocean-current-could-mean-la-nina-becomes-the-norm?CMP=twt_a-environment_b-gdneco

Emergence of changing Central-Pacific and Eastern-Pacific El Niño-Southern Oscillation in a warming climate - Nature Communications

Under global warming, increased variability in El Niño sea surface temperature was projected to be detectable by about 2070. Here the authors show that the increased variability of a type of more impactful El Niño events is likely detectable by 2030.

Nature
Show threadJohnWNov 26, 2022

@jimbaird22 This is a good article, and this part concerns me the most. I already have a theory on it.

"The researchers noted that the effect of climate change on the jet stream is still being debated, although some scientists believe such wave patterns are becoming more frequent and extreme due to human activity."

The AMOC is a driver of atmospheric currents, and as it weakens, those currents will drift and behave erratically.