Hal Daumé IIINov 22, 2022

New blog post on the NeurIPS'21 experiment re authors' perceptions of their own papers!

https://blog.ml.cmu.edu/2022/11/22/neurips2021-author-perception-experiment/

Key findings:

1) Authors significantly overestimate their papers' chances of acceptance. By like a LOT.

>

How do Authors' Perceptions about their Papers Compare with Co-authors’ Perceptions and Peer-review Decisions?

Alina Beygelzimer, Yann N. Dauphin, Percy Liang, Jennifer Wortman Vaughan(NeurIPS 2021 Program Chairs) Charvi Rastogi, Ivan Stelmakh, Zhenyu Xue, Hal Daumé III, Emma Pierson, and Nihar B. Shah There is a considerable body of research on peer review. Within the machine learning community, there

Machine Learning Blog | ML@CMU | Carnegie Mellon University
Show threadVic UzumeriNov 23, 2022

@hal

Are we looking at another study that corroborates Dunning-Kruger?

I'm thinking a lot of recent PhD's submitting their theses and young Assistant Professors trying to learn how to publish.

Of course, I would have to dig into the data to see if my casual speculations hold any water.

Show threadHal Daumé III
@vicuzumeri The second result is suggestive of this, though even the "senior" people (who have arguably become part of the "NeurIPS community") are pretty poorly calibrated too.
Nov 23, 2022 at 1:54amWeb