New blog post on the NeurIPS'21 experiment re authors' perceptions of their own papers!

https://blog.ml.cmu.edu/2022/11/22/neurips2021-author-perception-experiment/

Key findings:

1) Authors significantly overestimate their papers' chances of acceptance. By like a LOT.

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How do Authors' Perceptions about their Papers Compare with Co-authors’ Perceptions and Peer-review Decisions?

Alina Beygelzimer, Yann N. Dauphin, Percy Liang, Jennifer Wortman Vaughan(NeurIPS 2021 Program Chairs) Charvi Rastogi, Ivan Stelmakh, Zhenyu Xue, Hal Daumé III, Emma Pierson, and Nihar B. Shah There is a considerable body of research on peer review. Within the machine learning community, there

Machine Learning Blog | ML@CMU | Carnegie Mellon University
@hal Interesting. My mentor had an idea to calibrate the author opinion part wrt experience, e.g., if student A and B have divergent opinions, can the advisor do better and settle the dispute?
@x the follow up post shows more “senior” folks do indeed produce better calibrated responses - but not hugely so