Robert FromontNov 13, 2022
A while back, recovering from surgery and desperate for books, and I was tricked by Audible's recommender system into buying Jordan Peterson's book. In my defence, I didn't know who he was then. I think before the end of chapter one, I went from ‘lobsters had complex social hierarchy, interesting!’ to ‘OMG, I’m inadvertently reading trash!' It was the only time I've asked for a refund from Amazon, and I escaped unscathed, and wiser.
Show threadRobert FromontNov 13, 2022

Fast forward to recently, when I spotted #WilliamMacAskill's #WhatWeOweTheFuture, which is all about how we owe it to future generations to not screw up the present. It recognises that humanity can now drive itself to extinction, and tries to figure out some strategies for avoiding that.

It seemed like it might press my armageddon fascination buttons but offer some rays of hope, and maybe suggest concrete actions.

Show threadRobert FromontNov 13, 2022

Initially, it played out like that:

WWOTF: OMG for the first time in history we can annihilate ourselves in multiple ways!
Me: Yep!
WWOTF: We should try to avoid that!
Me: I don't want my descendants living out Mad Max. How can I be a Good Ancestor?
WWOTF: The nuclear threat hasn't gone away!
Me: I know! Philomena Cunk does too: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5zabCBnUHLA
WWOTF: Climate Change!
Me: Yeah, I have to scroll quickly past COP27 headlines to preserve my mental health…
WWOTF: Pathogens!
Me: Topical.

Philomena Cunk finds out that nuclear weapons still exist

YouTube
Show threadRobert Fromont
WWOTF: AI apocalypse!
Me: … well. I mean, not ‘the singularity’ like Terminator or Matrix. …but yeah, it's locking in some bad prejudice, and is being used as a tool for evil. So, yeah, kinda.
WWOTF: What doesn't kill us might nevertheless destroy civilisation, it's happened before!
Me: Sure. Kinda like the last half of Threads, right? https://youtu.be/FDmrFjQFQ38
Threads (1984) | Post-Nuclear War Harvest

YouTube
Nov 13, 2022 at 4:03pmWeb
Show threadRobert FromontNov 13, 2022
WWOTF: Humanity worse than decimated, people roaming the wasteland.
Me: I read The Road recently too.
WWOTF: Humanity can only survive if there are lots of humans.
Me: … well … we got through hundreds of millenia without…
WWOTF: How will we build up the population again?!
Me: …
WWOTF: Fertility rates are already dropping, something should be done!
Me: In 2022, with the number of humans about to tick over 8 billion, am I seriously reading a book about how to increase the number of humans?
Show threadPeter MNov 14, 2022
@robertfromont more and more I’m convinced that modern human life is all a pyramid scheme. Unfortunately, when you’re in the game it’s hard to be willing to upset the house of cards.
Show threadDavid Chase (dr2chase)Nov 14, 2022

@robertfromont We need a large and genetically diverse population from which adversity can select our highly-melanated-radiation-resistant (*), flipper-footed, disease-resistant descendants.

(*) it works for fungi: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Radiotrophic_fungus#Role_of_melanin

I kinda wonder if those EA guys have been microdosing for too long, and not micro enough.

Radiotrophic fungus - Wikipedia

Show threadRobert FromontNov 13, 2022

I mean, I know philosophers are, and should be, open to considering things that seem ridiculous, and maybe I should charitably assume that there's an intelligent pay-off at the end.

But I'm getting that sinking feeling that's I'm a sucker tricked into reading trash again.

Has anyone out there finished #WhatWeOweTheFuture, and thinks I should forge ahead?

Show threadRobert FromontNov 14, 2022

Wow! A timely toot from the amazing @timnitGebru has led me to this confirmation of my suspicions:

https://www.currentaffairs.org/2021/07/the-dangerous-ideas-of-longtermism-and-existential-risk

I think I can stop wasting my time on #WhatWeOweTheFuture

The Dangerous Ideas of “Longtermism” and “Existential Risk” ❧ Current Affairs

<p>So-called rationalists have created a disturbing secular religion that looks like it addresses humanity’s deepest problems, but actually justifies pursuing the social preferences of elites.</p>

Current Affairs
Show threadRobert FromontNov 23, 2022

Another thank you to @timnitGebru this time for a retweet of the following Twitter thread with yet more things wrong with #WhatWeOweTheFuture - I sure dodged a bullet

The thread summarises this by Émile P Torres:
https://thebulletin.org/2022/11/what-longtermism-gets-wrong-about-climate-change/#post-heading

What “longtermism” gets wrong about climate change

A new movement and a popular new book argue that climate change is not an existential threat to humans. That’s a dangerous claim.

Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists
Show threadRobert FromontNov 23, 2022
https://twitter.com/xriskology/status/1595094845630152705
Émile P. Torres 🏳️‍⚧️ on Twitter

“NEW ARTICLE of mine on some of William MacAskill's outrageous claims about climate change in "What We Owe the Future." It's in the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists. Let's take a quick look at what I write. A short 🧵: https://t.co/6VSSrNUpMO”

Twitter
Show threadTimnit Gebru (she/her).Nov 14, 2022

@robertfromont You can read this 10,000 word https://ratutilove.substack.com/p/the-rational-utilitarian-love-movementsatire of EA instead.

And if you're wondering why What We Owe the Future & the cult leader who wrote it were featured on literally every major media outlet, it's the $10M he got to promote his book from EA billionaires.

Show threadJeremy HowardNov 14, 2022
@timnitGebru @robertfromont Timnit that link gets a 404 error for me
Show threadVito DabischNov 14, 2022
@jh @timnitGebru @robertfromont Always make sure to delete satire first!
Show threadTimnit Gebru (she/her).Nov 14, 2022
@jh @robertfromont Hi Jeremy! How about this one? https://ratutilove.substack.com/p/the-rational-utilitarian-love-movement
The Rational Utilitarian Love Movement

A Historical Retrospective

The RUL Department of History
Show threadJeremy HowardNov 14, 2022
@timnitGebru @robertfromont many thanks that works.
Show threadCharlieNov 14, 2022
@timnitGebru @robertfromont that's funny and sad. I like the escalation. The beginning is literally indistinguishable from what some of these people actually present like. I also had fun translating all the names. But then I had the opposite of fun considering how not completely unrealistic a scenario like this is : ((
Show threadRobert FromontNov 14, 2022
@Charlie @timnitGebru Reminds me of "The Masque of the Red Death" by @pluralistic although the RUL guys didn't get the sticky end that Doctorow's hedge fund manager did.
Show threadHiFiNov 14, 2022

@robertfromont @timnitGebru wait until you get into dark enlightenment, Evola’s fourth turning, transhumanism, and Cosmism.

holy heck is there a lot of crazy in Silicon Valley.

Show threadTimnit Gebru (she/her).Nov 14, 2022
@HiFi @robertfromont Yep the longtermists emerged from that.
Show threadHiFiNov 14, 2022
@timnitGebru off topic- but I dig your work. Thanks for being awesome.
Show threadTimnit Gebru (she/her).Nov 14, 2022
@HiFi Thank you for the appreciation.
Show threadRobert FromontNov 14, 2022
@HiFi @timnitGebru I'm too scared tonight to look these up...
Show threadPeter MNov 14, 2022
@HiFi @robertfromont @timnitGebru it seems like a fact of human nature that some of us have an unstoppable urge to create a “legacy” in order to attain a form of immortality (historically speaking), rather than simply be content to live an anonymous blip of a life that most of us will in fact live. Unfortunately many of those people are willing to sacrifice the livelihood and even lives of ordinary folks in the process.
Show threadPeter MNov 14, 2022
@HiFi @robertfromont @timnitGebru as an overreaction to longtermism, it’s interesting to compare this with https://deepgreenresistance.org/, who are willing to sacrifice most humans on the planet in order to give the natural world a fighting chance, pushing humanity into permanent decline.
Deep Green Resistance | Revolutionary Political Organization

Show threadHiFiNov 14, 2022

@woogie @robertfromont @timnitGebru regardless of the name or ideology you put behind it, sociopaths gonna sociopath.

ultimately I blame a system that selects for both sociopathic and psychopathic authoritarian minority rule. This can be applied to any one of numerous systems the modern world has had installed- including corporate, financial/economic, military, government, you name it.

Show threadGreg O’BeirneNov 14, 2022
@robertfromont @timnitGebru Fascinating - thanks! I was wondering how the spacefaring billionaires were managing to sleep at night, but this goes some way to providing an explanation…
Show threadIvan Sagalaev Nov 14, 2022
@robertfromont @timnitGebru incidentally, here's another piece on the same topic by the physicist Sabine Hossenfelder: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=B_M64BSzcRY
Elon Musk & The Longtermists: What Is Their Plan?

YouTube
Show threadRobert FromontNov 14, 2022
@isagalaev @timnitGebru Thanks Ivan, that was an excellent explainer, worth a look for anyone who finds #LongTermism semi compelling.
Show threadStop-the-MAGAss-ReichNov 14, 2022
@robertfromont @timnitGebru "As I have noted elsewhere, it involves subjugating nature, maximizing economic productivity, replacing humanity with a superior “posthuman” species, colonizing the universe, and ultimately creating an unfathomably"...... WTH? That is just imperialism on steroids which brought about the worst in humanity. Darth Vader would be proud.
Show thread▇▕ ▂┃▇ ▖▀ ▅ ▄ ⭩⭩⭩Nov 14, 2022
@robertfromont @timnitGebru Preference for the welfare of speculative "post-humans" over existing humans is insane.
Show thread▇▕ ▂┃▇ ▖▀ ▅ ▄ ⭩⭩⭩Nov 14, 2022
@robertfromont @timnitGebru Fantasies of computer simulated humans (let alone preferring them to actual humans) is the product of too much online gaming.
Show thread▇▕ ▂┃▇ ▖▀ ▅ ▄ ⭩⭩⭩Nov 14, 2022
@robertfromont @timnitGebru The belief that human activity is the only bearer of value in the universe is a grotesque kind of neo-Christianity.
Show thread▇▕ ▂┃▇ ▖▀ ▅ ▄ ⭩⭩⭩Nov 14, 2022
@robertfromont @timnitGebru The expectation that AI will ever amount to a legitimate equivalent of human cognition and experience is based on, to date, no evidence at all.
Show thread▇▕ ▂┃▇ ▖▀ ▅ ▄ ⭩⭩⭩Nov 14, 2022
@robertfromont @timnitGebru By the same logic, the danger of long-termist idiots taking "extraordinary measures" to promote their view is perhaps real, but it pales in comparison to the social, political, and economic threats these same mega-capitalists are killing us with already in the here and now.
Show threadWilhelm FitzpatrickNov 14, 2022
@robertfromont weird! It's like inverse Roko's Basilisk 🤯
Show threadVilson VieiraNov 14, 2022
@robertfromont @timnitGebru interesting how it really fits as a religion, avoiding to think on real actual problems because of a promise of a greater cause/entity/excuse. And it's also a paradox IMHO: investing efforts to solve current complex problems like climate change and poverty will push science, politics and other fields, and that will also benefit the long-term goals of human existence.
Show threadSam GrossNov 14, 2022

@timnitGebru @robertfromont It does not feel like a coincidence that longtermism (as a philosophy) effectively minimizes any negative externalities of the billionaire lifestyle as a rounding error.

Poaching a tiger? Well, from a long-term view the tiger was going to die anyway.

Show threadRobert FromontNov 14, 2022
@SamTheGeek Yeah, funny that!
Show threadmhoyeNov 14, 2022

@SamTheGeek @timnitGebru @robertfromont

Galbraith once said that "the modern conservative is engaged in one of man's oldest exercises in moral philosophy; that is, the search for a superior moral justification for selfishness." But I think that your modern billionaire does not actually believe in or care in the least about justifications, beyond their utility in turning ostensibly smart hangers-on into useful idiots.

Show threadRobert FromontNov 14, 2022
@mhoye Something like that was going to be my response to @gobeirne about the rocket men losing sleep. You said it better than I woulda
Show threadAlonNov 14, 2022
@SamTheGeek @timnitGebru @robertfromont This, and also the distraction from real problems. EA figured out that malarial bed nets are a really good use of charity money, and then the longtermists came in and decided it was less exciting than arguing over how many tech founders can dance on the head of a pin.
Show threadDiego BeghinNov 14, 2022

@Alon @SamTheGeek @timnitGebru @robertfromont In the end you can't do EA without choosing a political orientation. The movement ended up dominated by libertarians who believe they can spend money better than the government.

Would be cool to have an explicitly socdem or social liberal EA. A good movement should repel all but the most moral minority of billionaires.

Show threadAlonNov 14, 2022
@DiegoBeghin @SamTheGeek @timnitGebru @robertfromont Yeah, on Birdsite, I stunned a libertarian who just went ahead and assumed that weakening the state was good for fighting existential risks; I pointed out that every single success against corona was handled by a state (such as Taiwan), whereas the tech industry, even when it was right (e.g. Balaji Srinivasan), couldn't actually solve the problem, just reduce its own exposure.
Show threadjmmcdNov 15, 2022
@SamTheGeek @timnitGebru @robertfromont anyone caring about climate change could make the same argument: compared to climate change, that tiger doesn't matter. So now by your logic we should be suspicious of people who care about climate change.
Show threadJohn MullinaxNov 14, 2022
@robertfromont @timnitGebru Longtermism as described seems to fulfill the highest potential of the word "bollocks."
Show threadSiva KalyanNov 14, 2022
@robertfromont @timnitGebru I’m surprised that more people haven’t drawn a parallel between longtermist reasoning and Pascal’s Wager. They both work the same way, and yet I doubt there’s anyone who accepts both!