emptywheelNov 12, 2022
Something I'm thinking about (will report back later): If your goal was to best preserve US democracy, is a House w/a GOP+1-5 seats or a Dem+1-2 better. This assumes CCM will win NV.
Show threademptywheelNov 12, 2022

So here's part of my logic: First, the crazies think they can take over.

There's no way the GOPers in the new swing seats will abide by that.

And any GOP majority will be really fragile, far more fragile than the Dems with the same majority.

GratefulheartNov 12, 2022
Show threadDave Troy 
@emptywheel I think that’s right; had they picked up 10-15 seats it’d be game over. As it is they will try to ram through stuff like the debt default (and/or hold Ukraine hostage), but that won’t play well. I do worry a handful (2-4) of the 30 Dems (from the letter) might play along with them, for reasons, but that’s less likely without the cover of a greater R margin. Overall this election outcome may keep the doors glued on long enough to get us to the other side.
Nov 12, 2022 at 12:16pmWeb
Show threademptywheelNov 12, 2022
@davetroy I think there will be coalitions on certain issues. The signers of the letter will also work with the nutjobs on surveillance, as they have for years (tho the nutjobs have become far less libertarian, obviously). But that's not necessarily a bad thing.
Show threadDave Troy Nov 12, 2022
@emptywheel yeah. I’m primarily worried about how we maintain long term support for Ukraine for as long as it takes to immobilize and exhaust Russia. That’s likely to be at least another 12 months, maybe much longer. We also need to navigate a long term solution to the debt ceiling. Godwilling, the D’s will hold the House, but I’m absolutely not betting on it.
Show threadGinaNov 12, 2022
@emptywheel
I think the question is will the Republicans try to make the government actually get anything done or just try to make it so the Democrats can't accomplish anything else? It will be easier to be obstructionist if they have the majority in the house, thus giving them speaker. I worry that all they will want, regardless of which party wins the House, is to obstruct and then point to the lack of productivity as the fault of the Democrats.
Show threademptywheelNov 12, 2022
@thekat03 That's sort of my point, though. That's going to be fine for 80% of the GOP caucus. But not a critical 20%, especially the ones who just won in NY and NJ, for example. So what happens when they decide they don't want that in a 220-215 House?
Show threadGinaNov 12, 2022
@emptywheel
I do hope that some fraction of the Republicans in the house are willing to sit down at the table and try to make government work. I am just extremely skeptical. A fair number of those flipped seats were won by redistricting. The most out there Republican candidates failed to be elected, but Republicans have also shown 1) they largely put party before country, despite their "America first" hats, and 2) they totally can obstruct and sell it as the Democrats fault.
Show threadArdeeNov 12, 2022
@davetroy @emptywheel
My fear is once they take over committees, all progress will stop and they’ll just fritter the 2 years away on bogus performative bills that punish blue states.