PwnallthethingsNov 10, 2022

Fun to watch the battle of the anonymous US officials in the press.

Here are some anonymous US officials suggesting a sustainable peace deal might be available in winter: https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/national-security/ukraine-russia-war-winter-diplomacy-rcna56190?icid=election_results

Winter could be diplomatic opportunity in Ukraine-Russia war, U.S. and Western officials say

Ukraine and Russia could have an opportunity for diplomacy as winter arrives and U.S. and Western officials anticipate a potential fighting slowdown in the war.

NBC News
Show threadPwnallthethingsNov 10, 2022
By contrast, here are some other anonymous officials suggesting a sustainable peace deal is still very far off https://www.nytimes.com/2022/11/09/us/politics/ukraine-russia-peace-talks.html
Ukraine Peace Talks Remain Distant Even as Moscow Signals a Retreat

President Biden and European leaders say they cannot push Ukraine and Russia into negotiations, though some U.S. lawmakers are questioning aid for an open-ended war.

Show threadPwnallthethingsNov 10, 2022
DOD seems to be on team "winter peace deal is possible" https://twitter.com/DanLamothe/status/1590500796118228c
Show threadPwnallthethingsNov 10, 2022
State Dept seems to be on team "eh, I don't see it"
Show threadPwnallthethingsNov 10, 2022
My opinion (take it or leave it, you get what you pay for) is that R would definitely go for an operational pause under guise of a ceasefire, but no peace deal would be sustainable until middle of next year at the bare minimum.
Show threadDmitri AlperovitchNov 10, 2022
@Pwnallthethings I don't think any peace deal is likely at all for at least the next 2 years. Assuming Ukraine keeps receiving western military aid
Show threadtom4okstateNov 10, 2022
@dmitri @Pwnallthethings is there any level of damage the Ukrainians could realistically do to the Russian forces that would force the Russians to the table sooner? Like if we gave the Ukrainians the much talked about ATACMS would that do the job or would that just be more the same?
Show threadPwnallthethingsNov 10, 2022

@tom4okstate @dmitri IMO yes. Two key things for getting to negotiations faster is

(a) active irrevocable commitment to supply UA over the long-term at a high rate
(b) demonstrating supply at a rate and capacity that will substantially outmatch any plausible R resupply or regroup.

If we can do both, R will rapidly want to negotiate for the long-term. Less than that, they will hold out on the West to leave or to see how mobilization/force reconstitution pans out.

Show threadDmitri AlperovitchNov 10, 2022
@Pwnallthethings @tom4okstate I disagree on Russia being willing to negotiate anything but a tactical ceasefire (which would be a win for them). Putin is now all in. He has turned this war into an existential one for his regime
Show threadDarrenNov 10, 2022
@dmitri @Pwnallthethings @tom4okstate you probably answered this elsewhere, doubtless multiple times, but are his drastic options more feasible if indeed he is terminally ill? Essentially, has he wedded his regime to the war so much that he'd do anything if death or a full loss of all annexed territory was likely?
Show threadDmitri AlperovitchNov 10, 2022
@Darrenpauli @Pwnallthethings @tom4okstate There is no evidence he is ill, much less terminally. A lot of wishful thinking out there from amateur TV diagnosis docs…
Show threadDarren
@dmitri @Pwnallthethings @tom4okstate ugh, thanks, feel a bit foolish as I'd disregarded it as likely bullshit till a masthead like the economist or similar covered it recently. Either way, hope he finds a way to spin some political gymnastics rather than opt for a drastic option should he lose all Ukrainian territory.
Nov 10, 2022 at 7:14amWeb