PwnallthethingsNov 10, 2022

Fun to watch the battle of the anonymous US officials in the press.

Here are some anonymous US officials suggesting a sustainable peace deal might be available in winter: https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/national-security/ukraine-russia-war-winter-diplomacy-rcna56190?icid=election_results

Winter could be diplomatic opportunity in Ukraine-Russia war, U.S. and Western officials say

Ukraine and Russia could have an opportunity for diplomacy as winter arrives and U.S. and Western officials anticipate a potential fighting slowdown in the war.

NBC News
Show threadPwnallthethingsNov 10, 2022
By contrast, here are some other anonymous officials suggesting a sustainable peace deal is still very far off https://www.nytimes.com/2022/11/09/us/politics/ukraine-russia-peace-talks.html
Ukraine Peace Talks Remain Distant Even as Moscow Signals a Retreat

President Biden and European leaders say they cannot push Ukraine and Russia into negotiations, though some U.S. lawmakers are questioning aid for an open-ended war.

Show threadPwnallthethingsNov 10, 2022
DOD seems to be on team "winter peace deal is possible" https://twitter.com/DanLamothe/status/1590500796118228c
Show threadPwnallthethingsNov 10, 2022
State Dept seems to be on team "eh, I don't see it"
Show threadPwnallthethingsNov 10, 2022
My opinion (take it or leave it, you get what you pay for) is that R would definitely go for an operational pause under guise of a ceasefire, but no peace deal would be sustainable until middle of next year at the bare minimum.
Show threadDmitri AlperovitchNov 10, 2022
@Pwnallthethings I don't think any peace deal is likely at all for at least the next 2 years. Assuming Ukraine keeps receiving western military aid
Show threadtom4okstateNov 10, 2022
@dmitri @Pwnallthethings is there any level of damage the Ukrainians could realistically do to the Russian forces that would force the Russians to the table sooner? Like if we gave the Ukrainians the much talked about ATACMS would that do the job or would that just be more the same?
Show threadPwnallthethingsNov 10, 2022

@tom4okstate @dmitri IMO yes. Two key things for getting to negotiations faster is

(a) active irrevocable commitment to supply UA over the long-term at a high rate
(b) demonstrating supply at a rate and capacity that will substantially outmatch any plausible R resupply or regroup.

If we can do both, R will rapidly want to negotiate for the long-term. Less than that, they will hold out on the West to leave or to see how mobilization/force reconstitution pans out.

Show threadDmitri AlperovitchNov 10, 2022
@Pwnallthethings @tom4okstate I disagree on Russia being willing to negotiate anything but a tactical ceasefire (which would be a win for them). Putin is now all in. He has turned this war into an existential one for his regime
Show threadPwnallthethingsNov 10, 2022
@dmitri @tom4okstate I think he'd find a way to negotiate if there's effective certainty of his continuation being unsuccessful. The problem is we keep holding back support for fear of escalation, which has the perverse effect of signaling to him and those around him that his success on this path is still possible.
Show threadDmitri Alperovitch
@Pwnallthethings @tom4okstate Given how information and advice filters up to him, I don’t see anything that you could do to convince him that he has lost… without actually making him lose
Nov 10, 2022 at 3:45amWeb
Show threadPwnallthethingsNov 10, 2022
@dmitri @tom4okstate probably.
Show threadLTNov 10, 2022
@dmitri @Pwnallthethings @tom4okstate Do you think the concept of winning/losing for him is binary at this point, i.e. that he will push for full control of the „annexed“ regions even at the cost of not being able to hold on to Crimea conventionally? Or is the war existential only insofar as he can‘t lose but not that he has to win?
Show threadDmitri AlperovitchNov 10, 2022

@LT @Pwnallthethings @tom4okstate Annexation of territory was a “burning of the boats” for him. I don’t see any way back.

Politically he can’t just unannex them and say “Just kidding. Never meant to do that!” So I think he will keep fighting for them until either he succeeds or fails. The latter seems more likely if western military aid to Ukraine does not cease

Show threadLTNov 10, 2022
@dmitri @Pwnallthethings @tom4okstate Yeah, also depends on whether he simply massively miscalculated when "annexing" or if he thinks he can still reconstruct a boat out of the ashes. Probably depends on whether annexation is seen more as aspirational or if annexed regions are really and not just rhetorically considered as part of Russia by rest of the elite I guess.