Kevin MorrisNov 4, 2022
1/n
Georgia voters are turning out in record-breaking numbers during early in-person voting. While some observers have pointed to high turnout to argue that the state’s restrictive voting law, SB 202, has no impact, topline numbers obscure what's happening below the hood🧵
Show threadKevin Morris
2/n
These numbers may change, with today being the final day of early voting, mail ballots still coming in, and Election Day on Tuesday. But what we see so far is what we'd expect if SB 202 were suppressing the vote, particularly for voters of color
Nov 4, 2022 at 5:18pmWeb
Show threadKevin MorrisNov 4, 2022
3/n
For much of October, preliminary data from the state shows that mail voting—the mode targeted by SB 202—was⬇️among Black voters but ⬆️among white voters from 2018. At this point 4 years ago, 37% of mail voters were Black. This year? Just 32% and declining
Show threadKevin MorrisNov 4, 2022
4/n
For the first few days, Black voters moved to early in-person voting more than white voters. But that trend has also eroded: 5 days before the 2018 election, 30% of early in-person voters were Black. As of yesterday, they’ve made up just 29% this year, and trending downwards
Show threadKevin MorrisNov 4, 2022
5/n
These early racially disparate trends aren’t surprising. SB 202 included several provisions that specifically targeted mail voting, a year after voters, particularly voters of color, turned to the voting alternative in droves during the pandemic
Show threadKevin MorrisNov 4, 2022
6/n
We of course don’t know what Election Day will look like. Even if turnout IS up, that wouldn't mean that SB202 isn’t having an effect. Instead of crucial resources being used to turn out more voters, they’re being poured into educating voters on how to navigate the new rules
Show threadKevin MorrisNov 4, 2022
7/7
In sum: turnout is up in Georgia, which is terrific. But the racial turnout dynamics are troubling, and it's far, far too early to conclude that SB 202 isn't having detrimental effects on voter access in Georgia.
Show threadGreg SassoNov 4, 2022
@KevinTMorris Also, just because people are able to overcome barriers doesn't mean those barriers should be there in the first place.
Show threadKevin MorrisNov 4, 2022
@gsasso Again, for the people in the back! Every time I talk to a journo I hammer this home. We study turnout because the data is easy to get quickly, but if someone waits for 7 hours and votes, their turnout doesn't go down. So the line didn't matter? Give me a break.