@61 fair cop. But what people mean when they ask that, more specifically, is "when is the superset of OS based on *GNU/Linux* going to be adopted by more than a hobbyist minority as a day-to-day OS". Treating each distro as a "product" would only make sense if Windows and MacOS were products, subject to the same market competition as pencils or bread, rather than "platforms" with powerful network effects.
@jcbrand