#ABR #SDwx 103
ACUS11 KWNS 151746
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 151746
NDZ000-SDZ000-151945-

Mesoscale Discussion 1149
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1246 PM CDT Mon Jun 15 2026

Areas affected...portions of the northern Great Plains

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 151746Z - 151945Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...The potential for strong to isolated severe wind gusts
will increase through the afternoon as isolated to widely sca https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/2026/md1149.html

#ABR #SDwx 798
WUUS02 KWNS 151729
PTSDY2

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK AREAL OUTLINE
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1228 PM CDT MON JUN 15 2026

VALID TIME 161200Z - 171200Z

PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK POINTS DAY 2

... TORNADO ...

0.02 42368837 43118709 43758592 43528480 42998407 41968415
40498478 39678594 39168695 39038740 39038803 39218858
39448887 39788911 41148882 42368837
0.02 27539634 28429677 30739198 30538909 29908849 29488811
&&

... HAIL .. https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/archive/2026/day2otlk_20260615_1730.html

#ABR #SDwx 664
FXUS63 KABR 151730
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
1230 PM CDT Mon Jun 15 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- There is a 30-50% chance of showers and thunderstorms over
mainly north central to northeastern SD and western MN. Wind
gusts of 50-60mph and small hail will be possible in the
stronger storms.

- Widespread precipitation chances of 70-90% move into mainly
north central to northeastern SD/west central MN Wedne https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/p.php?pid=202606151730-KABR-FXUS63-AFDABR

#ABR #SDwx 049
WUUS01 KWNS 151612
PTSDY1

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK AREAL OUTLINE
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1111 AM CDT MON JUN 15 2026

VALID TIME 151630Z - 161200Z

PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK POINTS DAY 1

... TORNADO ...

0.02 35450340 35390428 36020493 36500500 36830480 36940437
37000397 36970364 36800337 36180322 35450340
&&

... HAIL ...

0.05 36890530 37060393 37520306 37980267 38900227 39060186
39010110 38490027 37700016 36690170 347602 https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/archive/2026/day1otlk_20260615_1630.html

#ABR #SDwx 826
FNUS63 KABR 151430
RFDABR

Rangeland Fire Danger Statement
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
930 AM CDT Mon Jun 15 2026

.DISCUSSION...

A surface trough will move in from North Dakota this afternoon,
bringing a 30 to 50 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms to
mainly north central to northeastern South Dakota and western
Minnesota. Winds will gust 30 to near 40 mph this afternoon. Strong
showers or thunderstorms from mid afternoon into the https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/p.php?pid=202606151430-KABR-FNUS63-RFDABR

#ABR #SDwx 296
WUUS01 KWNS 151247
PTSDY1

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK AREAL OUTLINE
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0745 AM CDT MON JUN 15 2026

VALID TIME 151300Z - 161200Z

PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK POINTS DAY 1

... TORNADO ...

0.02 35450340 35390428 36020493 36500500 36830480 36940437
37000397 36970364 36800337 36180322 35450340
&&

... HAIL ...

0.05 36890530 37060393 37520306 37980267 38900227 39060186
39010110 38490027 37700016 36690170 347602 https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/archive/2026/day1otlk_20260615_1300.html

#ABR #SDwx 742
FLUS43 KABR 151235
HWOABR

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
735 AM CDT Mon Jun 15 2026

MNZ039-046-SDZ003>011-015>023-034>037-051-161245-
Traverse-Big Stone-Corson-Campbell-McPherson-Brown-Marshall-Roberts-
Walworth-Edmunds-Day-Dewey-Potter-Faulk-Spink-Clark-Codington-Grant-
Hamlin-Deuel-Sully-Hughes-Hyde-Hand-Buffalo-
735 AM CDT Mon Jun 15 2026 /635 AM MDT Mon Jun 15 2026/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for west central https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/p.php?pid=202606151235-KABR-FLUS43-HWOABR

#ABR #SDwx 016
FXUS63 KABR 151225
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
725 AM CDT Mon Jun 15 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- There is a 30-50% chance of showers and thunderstorms over
mainly north central to northeastern SD and western MN. Wind
gusts of 50-60mph and small hail will be possible in the
stronger storms.

- Widespread precipitation chances of 70-90% move into mainly
north central to northeastern SD/west central MN Wednes https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/p.php?pid=202606151225-KABR-FXUS63-AFDABR

#ABR #SDwx 445
FXUS63 KABR 151115 AAA
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
615 AM CDT Mon Jun 15 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- There is a 30-50% chance of showers and thunderstorms over mainly
north central to northeastern SD and western MN, with around a 30%
chance of rainfall in excess of 0.10, or a wetting rain, for areas
north and east of Aberdeen this afternoon through this evening. No
severe weather is expected at this t https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/p.php?pid=202606151115-KABR-FXUS63-AFDABR-AAA