1u - Dylan Harper (SAS) over 12.5 points -123 (DK)
Late add - needed the Wemby news. Would bet this at 13.5 (risking 1u).
Fantastic matchup against the Pacers who don’t help off their man and funnel all action to the paint. And no Zubac today.
No Castle for the Spurs - Harper should see 22-28 mins. With 20+ mins, he’s 15/21 on this line against bottom 15 paint defenses (Indy is 29th).
1u - Cayden Boozer (DUKE) over 11.5 points -130 (DUKE)
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Still don’t think this is adjusted enough for his role - would bet this at 12.5 too (risking 1u).
Expecting TCU to shift coverages to Cameron Boozer - they hedged hard against OSU which left them very vulnerable at the high post - would be weird to do that and leave Cameron Boozer open.
Expecting Cayden to have room to operate, with shadow coverage on Evans (which we saw off ball on Thornton).
1u - Carson Cooper (MICH ST) over 11.5 points -118 (FD)
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Over in 7/L8, and the one miss was foul trouble related. Has become an integral part of the offense, and I like his size to overwhelm Louisville’s bigs (their weakness).
Expecting Louisville to hedge hard to stop Fears offensively.
1u - Rashaun Agee (TA&M) under 24.5 points + rebounds -125 (FD)
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Also playable at under 15.5 points.
Averaged 25.4 P+R per game in the SEC, but that was with A&M scoring 83 ppg. I don’t think they sniff that today - they’re implied at ~67.
Houston dominates the interior with Tugler and Cenac and forces the action outside. Ninth lowest 2P FG% nationally, fourth fewest 2P made per game.
Agee gets 66% of his points via 2P. In SEC play, his big performances came against weaker competition - he was 7/7 to the under against the top 8 schools in defensive efficiency in conference (per KenPom).
1u - Flory Bidunga (KU) over 8.5 rebounds -125 (FD)
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Comes into this one over in 12/L16. Averaged 9.2 this season, and that bumps to 9.6 when Peterson plays.
Cal Baptist rated well with opponent rebounds and their own offensive rebounds in a weak conference, but to me that just means rebound chances will be there.
Bidunga will have a size/athleticism advantage, and will not be guarding an offensive threat.
1u - Amani Lyles (AKR) over 12.5 points -114 (FD)
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Going through TTU’s games without JT Toppin, they really struggle defensively around the bucket.
I see Lyles being able to take advantage. He averaged 14.6 ppg in just 26 mins, but was up to 30+ in the conference tourney. TTU will slow down Akron but that should get Lyles more looks in the halfcourt offense.
1u - Thijs de Ridder (UVA) over 15.5 points -120 (FD)
1u - Mason Falslev (USU) 15+ points -114 (FD)
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2-2 yesterday. Let’s make some money today.
First two I’m locking in ⬇️⬇️⬇️
1u - Bones Hyland (MIN) over 11.5 points -128 (FD)
Ok with over 12.5 too (0.75u).
Hyland has now cleared this line in all six games he’s played without Anthony Edwards, when seeing at least 20 minutes of action.
This should be the case again tonight, as Minnesota is running a very lean guard rotation without their All-Star.
Hyland will face off against a Blazers defense that allows opponents to get out in transition at the third highest rate (Hyland’s preferred playtype).
1u - Kanon Catchings (UGA) over 14.5 points -113 (FD)
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Really came on down the stretch, clearing this easily in 4/L5 (lone miss was foul trouble and a blowout).
UGA runs deep, but Catchings seems like he’ll get 32ish mins if he can avoid foul trouble. And St Louis, for as fast as they play, does not draw a lot of fouls (320 in fouls drawn per possession).
This game is going to be a track meet. Both teams in the top 21 of tempo (KenPom) and both coaches have explicitly said in press conferences this week that they want to play fast.
St Louis does push the action behind the arc and that’s ideal for Catchings (45% in conference play, 60% of his points).
1u - Darius Acuff Jr. (ARK) 25+ points -128 (FD)
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Ok with over 25.5 too.
Going with the chalk. Acuff’s numbers obviously speak for themself (24.8 ppg in the SEC), but this is such an interesting schematic matchup.
Hawaii does not help off the ball at all. Despite playing at a tempo in the top 82nd percentile, they allow the fewest assists per game nationally, and the third lowest assist per FGM.
This bodes well for guys who can score one-on-one - and nobody has done that better than Acuff this season.
Will Hawaii adjust? Maybe. But Acuff has only got better as the season has worn on and teams have more tape on him.
Prop Bet Guy 🤖