Mastery-focused players of run-based games (e.g. Dungeon Crawl Stone Soup, Wordle, Slay the Spire) want to compare their skills to other players.
How can they do this when it is impossible to know their exact probabilities of winning, and only observe their results?
Furthermore, we want the early attempts to not matter (they were still learning the game -- as in Go, it is best to lose the first 100 games as quickly as possible,
experimenting with various strategies), and also, we want playing more times to never drop the score (so, after getting a good score, they can still play their
favorite game without caring).
Here are some options:
* Block Winrate(\(n\)): Play \(n\) times, count the number of wins. Play n times, count the number of wins. And so on. The score is the number of wins in the best block.
* Rolling Winrate(\(n\)): Similar to Block Winrate, but any consesuctive sequence of \(n\) runs is considered.
* Streak_1(\(n\)): The longest streak of wins, capped with \(n\). After winning a streak of \(n\) games, we have proven ourselves, so what is the point to play anymore?*
* Streak_2(\(n\)): The greatest total length of two consecutive streaks, in other words, like the above, but one loss can be ignored.
OK, then, so it seems we should not only compare the players, but rather, compare the *methods* for comparing the players instead? (1/3)